During the presidential election, who can become the President of the United States and public statements on cryptocurrencies affect the price trends of related tokens.
Since the start of the US presidential election, a series of election-related meme tokens have emerged. Especially with TRUMP as the main representative, the market value reached as high as $775 million after the Trump campaign team openly supported cryptocurrency donations. Due to Biden’s more conservative attitude towards cryptocurrencies, the market attention to tokens related to him is relatively lower. After the Trump hush money case charges were proven, the prices of tokens related to Trump fell, while meme tokens related to Biden saw an increase. During the election, who can become the President of the United States and public statements on cryptocurrencies affect the price trends of related tokens.
Candidates’ attitudes towards cryptocurrencies
Trump
In this election, Trump has changed his previous anti-cryptocurrency stance and released a series of crypto-friendly statements, including “Ensuring the future of the crypto industry and Bitcoin happens in the US, protecting the self-custody rights of 50 million crypto holders in the US,” and promising to pardon the founder of Silk Road if elected, etc.
His change in attitude towards cryptocurrency is not without evidence. At the end of 2022, Trump announced the limited edition Trump digital trading card NFT on truth social, and in 2023, he released “Win Trump Prizes” NFT on Polygon, with benefits including dinner with Trump, autographed memorabilia, 1 v1 meeting, etc.
In May 2024, Trump’s campaign team officially accepted cryptocurrency donations as campaign funds, officially confirming a crypto-friendly attitude.
Biden
Biden’s latest stance on cryptocurrencies is reflected in vetoing the SEC SAB 121 proposal. The core content of SAB 121 requires companies holding cryptocurrencies in custody to record the cryptocurrencies held by customers as liabilities on their balance sheets. This content has always been considered too strict, hindering custody organizations or companies from holding cryptocurrencies on behalf of customers. Biden’s veto letter stated that “overturning SAB 121 would weaken the SEC’s power in accounting affairs” and that “his government will not support measures that harm consumers and consumer welfare.”
Therefore, compared to Trump, Biden’s attitude towards cryptocurrencies is more conservative. The next opportunity for Biden to make a statement on cryptocurrencies will be the FIT 21 bill, which provides a regulatory framework for digital assets, allocating the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) oversight of digital assets based on whether they are “functional,” “non-functional,” or “decentralized.” The bill has passed the House of Representatives and still needs to be voted on by the Senate and signed by the President to become law.
SEC’s attitude towards crypto regulation
During Trump’s tenure from 2016 to 2020, Trump held an anti-crypto stance, with Jay Clayton as the SEC chairman. Jay Clayton took a cautious stance on cryptocurrencies, mainly targeting fraudulent ICO activities and cryptocurrency exchange platforms. The most typical cases were against Block.one, Ripple Labs, and Telegram (regarding Ton), with other cases mostly targeting individuals or companies illegally issuing tokens.
In April 2021, Biden appointed Gary Gensler as the SEC chairman. Gary Gensler has stated that he is a “middle-of-the-road minimalist” in Bitcoin, so there was speculation in the crypto industry that his appointment as SEC chairman would be beneficial to crypto development. However, both Gensler and Clayton hold cautious attitudes towards non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies, believing that “all tokens are securities.” This statement seemed to loosen on June 5, 2024, but there was no clear crypto-friendly stance. During Gensler’s tenure, the SEC’s cases related to crypto were far more than during Clayton’s term, and there was a significant increase in cases against exchanges, with exchanges such as Poloniex, Coinbase, Bittrex, Binance, and Kraken being sued. From the number and targets of SEC lawsuits related to crypto, it can be seen that Biden’s administration has a more conservative attitude towards crypto.
Note: From June 6, 2023, to December 31, 2023, there were 14 cases related to crypto by the SEC, and from January 1, 2024, to June 10, 2024, there were a total of 6 cases related to crypto that year.
Key events in the election process
July 15 to July 18, the Republican National Convention will decide the Republican candidate and platform. Trump has already been nominated as the Republican candidate.
August 19 to August 22, the Democratic National Convention will decide the Democratic candidate and platform. Biden has been confirmed as the candidate.
June 27 and September 10, debates between Biden and Trump could have a significant impact on the final election results.
November 5, the day of the presidential election.
Key event: Impact of the hush money case
Trump has been found guilty of all 34 charges in the “hush money” criminal case. The judge will sentence him on July 11, which theoretically could include imprisonment and substantial fines. Trump still has the option to appeal the “hush money” case. Even if convicted in the hush money case, it does not legally prevent Trump from continuing to run for President of the United States.
An Ipsos and ABC News poll in April showed that in the event of Trump’s conviction, 16% of Trump supporters would reconsider their vote. According to data tracking the latest polling results by racetotheWH, there are currently 8.8% undecided voters, with Trump leading in support. If Trump is convicted and sentenced, the undecided vote could increase to 17%, and Biden’s support would be higher than Trump’s.
The conviction in the hush money case has actually promoted donations to Trump. In April, fundraising amounted to approximately $76 million, exceeding Biden’s $51 million, and in May, Trump’s team disclosed that they had raised over $400 million, mainly from small donations, with an average donation of around $70. The specific amount will be announced by the end of June. It is worth noting that in the early stages of the 2020 campaign, Trump’s team had a strong campaign fund, but in the latter stages of the campaign, Biden’s team’s financial situation was better. While a strong campaign fund can bring some advantages, it does not guarantee the final election result.
The importance of cryptocurrencies in the election (Is there a condition for repeated speculation?)
On March 14, a poll released by Paradigm showed that 19% of registered American voters have purchased cryptocurrencies, leading to the conclusion that “one-fifth of the country is not a niche group.”
Cryptocurrency holders are willing to switch parties.
Swing states are the key battlegrounds in the election. According to polls, the main swing states this year are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with potential swing states being Nevada, North Carolina, and Minnesota.
According to a DGC survey in May on Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Montana, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, 26% of respondents said they are concerned about candidates’ positions on cryptocurrencies, and 21% said cryptocurrencies are an important issue to consider during the election. 55% of people are concerned that policymakers will stifle innovation through excessive regulation, so the next president needs to be crypto-friendly.
According to a CBS News poll released on April 29, the voters in the three major swing states of the Rust Belt (Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan) are most concerned about economic issues, mainly growth and inflation issues. Since Biden took office in the first quarter of 2021, the US GDP has grown by over 8% after adjusting for inflation, but the economic growth in these three “swing states” is far below the national average, especially Wisconsin, where GDP has only grown by 3.1% in nearly four years.
If candidates want to win votes in swing states, economic issues remain core, and it is not ruled out that candidates will mention cryptocurrency issues again to attract young voters.
Cryptocurrency meme tokens related to the US election
As meme tokens related to election themes see large price fluctuations, they involve more risks, including but not limited to: changes in candidates’ attitudes towards crypto and campaign slogan changes, and the probability of tokens being listed on exchanges is low. This content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.