As investors continue to digest new inflation data and the Fed’s dot plot, the crypto market shows volatile trends.
According to Bybt data, Bitcoin bulls attempted to push higher in early trading but faced resistance at $68,484, with bears taking control in the afternoon session. BTC fell to a daily low of $66,206 at one point. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin trading price is $66,844, down 2.5% in 24 hours.
Altcoins suffered heavy losses, with tokens ranking within the top 200 by market cap experiencing more drops than gains.
Io.net (IO), which saw the biggest increase the day before, recorded the largest decline on Thursday, falling by 19.1%. This was followed by CurveDAO Token (CRV) with a 19% drop, and Arweave (AR) with a 13.4% decline. Among the few tokens that saw gains, Aelf (ELF) led with a 7% increase, followed by SKALE (SKL) with a 6.5% rise, and Toncoin (TON) with a 4.1% increase.
The overall cryptocurrency market cap is currently $2.42 trillion, with Bitcoin’s market share at 54.2%.
In the US stock market, the Dow Jones closed down 0.17%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.2% and the Nasdaq rose 0.3%, with both reaching new closing highs for the fourth consecutive trading day. Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose by 3.5%, Apple (AAPL.O) by 0.5%, and Tesla (TSLA.O) by 2.9%.
The Producer Price Index for May, released on Thursday, showed a 0.2% month-on-month decrease after a 0.5% increase in April, indicating a slight easing of inflation and providing more reasons for investors to expect a rate cut in September. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Fed Watch tool currently shows a 68.5% probability of a rate cut, up from 65% yesterday.
Market needs a new narrative to stimulate demand
Analyst Skew analyzed the current buy and sell orders on exchanges.
In terms of BTC spot, from a liquidity perspective, there is bid depth between $66,000 and $65,000, but the market needs to find trading demand to support $66,000. There is significant ask depth near $70,000 and above, suggesting the market may need a new narrative to stimulate demand.
Looking at BTC perpetual contracts, the Perp order book is quite active, with a lot of low liquidity buying. This is usually a combination of actual demand and a large number of short positions seeking to close.
Comparing BTC Binance Perp and Bybit Perp, the perpetual contract market shows a clear hedging pattern, with shorts currently favored. However, the good news is that the funding rate is low and the spot premium continues for a longer time, indicating that the bubble is leaving the market.
Secure Digital Markets analyst stated: “As the US stock market hits record highs, it is expected that Bitcoin may soon follow suit. However, we should be prepared for short-term resistance around $70,000, with larger resistance at $72,000.”
$100,000 Bitcoin is only a matter of time
Despite Bitcoin’s price being in a sideways consolidation since late February, many analysts believe that a recovery in the uptrend is only a matter of time. Most predict that Bitcoin will eventually break $100,000 at some point in this bull market cycle.
Analyst and mathematician Fred Krüeger stated on his podcast: “In theory, by the end of this year, the price of Bitcoin should be close to $100,000, possibly even reaching $90,000. But Bitcoin’s price could be two standard deviations higher than these levels, pushing us to around $200,000 or even $400,000 this year.”
He added: “If we look another year ahead to 2025, we could be looking at a trend line of $140,000, and if we surpass this number by one or two standard deviations, we could reach $600,000, which would be a significant move.”
Krüeger mentioned that he believes “we could indeed see highs around $500,000 to $600,000 in this cycle.”
Market analyst CryptoCon has slightly lower bullish sentiment on the top of the market cycle, giving a “3-level” target price of $91,539 and a cycle top target of $123,832, noting that the cycle top target is rising.
Analyst Rekt Capital explained on the X platform why sideways price action is actually a good thing.
He wrote on Twitter: “The fact that Bitcoin is struggling to break out is beneficial for the entire cycle. Bitcoin has never broken out this early after a halving. If a breakout does occur, the cycle will accelerate to a degree shorter than usual.”
Rekt Capital stated: “This continued consolidation allows the price to resynchronize with historical halving cycles, allowing for a normal bull market. Bitcoin has been consolidating in this re-accumulation range for three months. History indicates that this situation may continue for another three months. Therefore, it wouldn’t be surprising if the price falls back from the high range resistance.”
Author: Mary Liu from BitpushNews
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