As investors continue to digest new inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s dot plot, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing fluctuations.
According to Bitpush data, Bitcoin bulls attempted to push higher in early trading but faced resistance at $68,484. Bears took control in the afternoon, causing BTC to drop to a daily low of $66,206. At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is $66,844, down 2.5% in 24 hours.
Altcoins suffered heavy losses, with tokens ranked in the top 200 by market capitalization experiencing more drops than gains.
The previous day’s biggest gainer, Io.net (IO), saw the biggest decline on Thursday, dropping 19.1%. CurveDAO Token (CRV) followed closely with a 19% drop, while Arweave (AR) fell 13.4%. Among the few tokens that saw gains, Aelf (ELF) led with a 7% increase, followed by SKALE (SKL) with a 6.5% increase, and Toncoin (TON) with a 4.1% increase.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is currently $2.42 trillion, with Bitcoin’s market share at 54.2%.
In the U.S. stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.17%, the S&P 500 rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.3%, with both setting new closing highs for the fourth consecutive trading day. Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 3.5%, Apple (AAPL.O) rose 0.5%, and Tesla (TSLA.O) rose 2.9%.
The Producer Price Index for May, released on Thursday, showed a 0.2% month-on-month decline after a 0.5% increase in April, indicating some easing of inflation and providing more reasons for investors to expect a rate cut in September. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Fed Watch tool currently shows a 68.5% probability of a rate cut, up from 65% yesterday.
Market needs new narratives to stimulate demand
Analyst Skew analyzed the current buy and sell orders on exchanges.
For BTC spot, there is bid support around $66,000 to $65,000, but the market needs to find trading demand to hold at $66,000. There is significant offer depth near $70,000 and above, indicating the market may need new narratives to stimulate demand.
Looking at BTC perpetual contracts, the Perp order book is quite active, with a lot of low liquidity for buyers, which is usually a combination of actual demand and a large number of shorts seeking to close positions.
Comparing BTC Binance Perp and Bybit Perp, the perpetual contract market shows a distinct hedging pattern, with shorts currently favored. However, the good news is that funding rates are lower and the spot premium continues to last longer, indicating that the bubble is leaving the market.
Secure Digital Markets analysts stated, “With the U.S. stock market hitting historic highs, Bitcoin is expected to follow suit soon. However, we should be prepared for short-term resistance around $70,000, with larger resistance at $72,000.”
$100,000 Bitcoin is only a matter of time
Although Bitcoin’s price has been consolidating since late February, many analysts believe that a resumption of the upward trend is only a matter of time, with most predicting that Bitcoin will eventually surpass $100,000 at some point in this bull market cycle.
Analyst and mathematician Fred Krüeger stated on his podcast, “In theory, Bitcoin’s price should be close to $100,000 by the end of this year, possibly reaching $90,000. However, Bitcoin’s price could be two standard deviations higher, bringing our price this year to around $200,000 or even $400,000.”
He added, “Looking ahead to 2025, we could hit a trend line of $140,000, and with one or two standard deviations higher, we could reach $600,000, which would be a significant move.”
Krüeger said he believed that “we could see highs around $500,000 to $600,000 in this cycle.”
Market analyst CryptoCon is slightly less bullish on the top of the cycle, giving a “Level 3” target price of $91,539 and a cycle top target of $123,832, but noting that the cycle top target is rising.
Analyst Rekt Capital explained on Twitter why a sideways price trend is actually a good thing.
He wrote, “The fact that Bitcoin is struggling to break through is beneficial for the entire cycle. Bitcoin has never broken out so early after a halving. If a breakout really occurs, the cycle will accelerate to a degree shorter than usual.”
Rekt Capital stated, “This sustained consolidation allows the price to resynchronize with historical halving cycles, allowing for a normal bull market. Bitcoin has been consolidating within this reaccumulation range for three months. History suggests this situation could continue for another three months. Therefore, it would not be surprising if the price falls back from the high range resistance.”
Author: Bitpush News Mary Liu
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