Opening on Monday, the cryptocurrency market faced downward pressure. According to Bybit data, Bitcoin broke below the $66,000 support level in early trading, hitting a low of $65,046 at noon. Subsequently, a surge in buying pushed the price back up to $67,286. However, the bullish momentum did not last, and as of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin was $66,580.16, with a 24-hour volatility close to 0%.
Among the top 200 tokens in terms of market capitalization on Monday, only 5 tokens saw gains of over 1%. Convex Finance (CVX) led with a 25.3% increase, followed by cat in a dogs world (MEW) with a 19.7% gain, and XRP with a 5.8% rise. zkSync (ZK) experienced the largest decline at 24.3%, followed by io.net (IO) at 22.1% and ConstitutionDAO (PEOPLE) at 18.7% down.
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is currently $2.41 trillion, with Bitcoin’s market share at 54.6%.
In the traditional market, AI-related stocks continue to be hot, with the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 reaching new highs, rising by 0.9% and 1.2% respectively. Some analysts have adjusted their year-end S&P 500 targets, with Evercore ISI raising theirs to 6,000 points and Goldman Sachs expecting the index to reach 5,600 points.
The question remains: rate cut in September or by the year-end? According to the FedWatch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, investors currently expect a 64% chance of a rate cut in September. However, Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, suggested in an interview with CBS on Sunday that the central bank might cut rates once this year, but not until December, calling it a “reasonable prediction.”
Summer slump begins. Since March, Bitcoin has been trading sideways in a narrow range. Alex Thorn, research director at Galaxy, pointed out in a post that Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility has dropped to near historic lows, highlighting the boring price action.
In addition, a report from CoinShares on June 17th showed that last week saw outflows of $600 million from digital asset exchange-traded products and funds, the largest since March 22nd. The total assets under management for crypto funds decreased from $100 billion to $94 billion. Global trading volume for digital asset investment products last week was below the average of $220 billion per week this year, at $110 billion, with the trading volume of the US spot Bitcoin ETF at $87.3 billion, far below the peak of $326.9 billion for March 4th to 8th.
Derivatives trading network Paradigm stated that the cryptocurrency market is “losing momentum” due to the lack of catalysts to motivate traders to take action. The company’s Telegram update earlier today mentioned, “Despite various positive forecasts, the new market needs real news to drive and maintain appeal.”
Analysts from Secure Digital Markets believe that investors are now “turning to quality assets” after the Fed took a tough stance. In times of market uncertainty, capital is being shifted from higher-risk investments to safer assets to minimize losses and preserve capital.
Charlie Morris, chief analyst at ByteTree, stated that on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin’s weakness will likely persist for at least a few months due to the decline in the value of the dollar in trading. Morris wrote, “I do not know how long this will last, but it seems to be a decisive change. This indicates that we should not be surprised by the breakthrough of the downtrend, and the prophecy that the halving will lead Bitcoin to new highs has not materialized, despite strong inflows into ETFs this year, the price continues to encounter resistance above $70,000. Today, the price has dropped below the 30-day moving average, with the trend falling to 2/5. However, it remains in a long-term uptrend.”
Morris added, “My argument has not changed, that Bitcoin will break out in October after a summer break. This has happened in 2016 and 2020. After the halving, the Bitcoin network has gone through six months of consolidation before stabilizing from the hype before the halving.”
According to market analyst TedTalksMacro, this week is crucial for Bitcoin. He analyzed on the X platform, saying, “Maintaining the $66,000 support level for Bitcoin is crucial for the next week. Once broken, sellers may dominate the market and force longs to liquidate quickly.”