The Future Trends of the Crypto Market Will BTC and ETH Dominate

The impact of the ETH spot ETF may be exaggerated.
The future trend of the crypto market? The market is like a battlefield. The difference between the bear market and the bull market will only grow wider. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has predicted the future of the crypto market, believing that the dominance of BTC and ETH will strengthen, and the trend of altcoins against Bitcoin (ALT/BTC) will be similar to the summer of 2019.
Key points:
The dominance of BTC is overall on the rise
Blue-chip dominance will further increase
ETH/BNB/TON is rising against the trend
The impact of the ETH spot ETF may be exaggerated
Once the market’s attention bottoms out, altcoins will bottom out
Impact of ETF on Bitcoin:
Many investors are puzzled by the increase in ETF holdings but the poor performance of Bitcoin. Ben believes that the crypto market is much larger than the flow of ETFs. There are also many overlooked sources of liquidity, such as whale players.
Why so obsessed with ETFs?
The enthusiasm for ETFs is largely due to personal bias. Ironically, supporters of “no keys, no coins, keys and coins are one” are also promoting ETFs. This inconsistency reveals a crucial force at work: the FOMO theory (Note: FOMO theory refers to the price of an asset being determined by people’s expectations).
Outlook for altcoins: What is the future trend?
The altcoin market is at a critical support level. It is expected that the market will break down, which may trigger further declines.
Ben’s view is based on: most ALT/BTC tend to be volatile.
When will ALT/BTC bottom out?
Once the social risk index reaches a lower low, ALT/BTC may bottom out. The current market situation is similar to the situation before the Fed rate cut in the summer of 2019. Social interest rebounded before the halving in 2019 and 2024, but then declined.
Advance/Decline Index (ADI):
One way to visualize altcoin capitalization is to use ADI. ADI is an index compiled based on the ratio of the number of rising tokens to the number of falling tokens each day, reflecting the overall trend of the market. Recent market conditions indicate that there are more falling altcoins than rising ones. Don’t go against the trend.
BTC—Calm in the Storm
Although Ben is bearish on most altcoins, BTC has a certain resilience. In addition, Ben also emphasized the relative strength of ETH, BNB, and UNI.
Ben did not elaborate on why ETH and UNI are strong. A reasonable explanation might be the resilience of DeFi. In a generally weak market, there are some strong signs.
Weak Total3
The Total3 index (the total market value of all cryptocurrencies other than BTC and ETH) is still below its 20-week moving average.
This does not mean that altcoins have disappeared, but selective investment is crucial.
Small cap vs large cap:
Another interesting point is OTHER – Total3 / OTHERs. This is a comparison of low-market cap altcoins to high-market cap altcoins.
Recently, the returns of higher-market cap altcoins have been significantly better than other tokens. Ben expects that, similar to mid-2022, low-market cap altcoins may see further declines.
Will Bitcoin’s dominance peak soon?
The dominance of BTC has not yet peaked. This is because Bitcoin has not broken through its 20-week moving average. Bitcoin has remained stable between $60,000 and $70,000, while other tokens have declined.
BTC dominance is trending upward overall:
A significant feature of this cycle is the lack of a general rise in altcoins. As a result, BTC dominance is trending upward overall.
Blue-chip dominance:
This trend also extends to the dominance of blue-chip tokens: the dominance of BTC and ETH is on the rise.
It is expected that this figure will approach 73%, and may even reach the upper limit of 80%. Recent market data is around 73% and has entered the upper limit range.
BTC dominance (excluding ETH):
The recent decline in BTC dominance is entirely due to speculation about the ETH spot ETF. Excluding ETH, BTC dominance is still strong.
Outlook for ETH/BTC:
The speculation about the spot ETF may temporarily boost ETH. However, it is expected that the long-term trend of ETH/BTC will be downward. This is because U.S. monetary policy has not changed, despite Bitcoin’s strong performance in difficult times.
When will ETH/BTC bottom out?
ETH/BTC may bottom out after the end of the Fed rate cut or quantitative tightening, but these events have not yet occurred.
Under restrictive monetary policies, BTC’s performance may surpass that of ETH.
Conditions for forecasting failure?
Ben is open to the possibility of ETH performing well. In particular, if ETH/BTC stays above the bullish range in July. It is worth noting that Ben did not predict the surge in ETH prices at the end of May. Therefore, this forecast may be wrong again.
It is worth noting that in the crypto field, pessimistic views are often more easily rationalized than optimistic views. However, it is important not to forget the irrational nature of the market. Strong reflexivity can trigger huge price fluctuations in an instant.
PANews note: Reflux refers to a rise in prices that attracts buyers, and buyers chasing further increases in prices until the process becomes unsustainable. The same process can be reversed, leading to a catastrophic collapse in prices.
Tags
Ethereum
Crypto market
Altcoins
Binance Coin
Platform Coin
Bitcoin