The halving of BTC is expected to occur around 9:00 PM Eastern Time based on data provided by btc.com. At that time, the miner reward will be reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
In the face of sticky inflation in the United States and escalating international geopolitical tensions, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing volatility and consolidation. According to data from Bybt, Bitcoin briefly plummeted to a low of $59,590 last night after Israel launched an attack on Iran. However, it rebounded during Friday’s trading session and reached an intraday high of $65,500 during the midday session. At the time of writing, it has fallen back to a support level of $64,300.
In the altcoin market, there has been a mix of gains and losses at the close of this week. Most of the top 200 tokens recorded gains on Friday. Saga (SAGA) led with a 24.5% increase, followed by JITO (JTO) with a 17.3% increase, and dogwifhat (WIF) with a 17% increase. Ribbon Finance (RBN) fell 13.2%, taking the bottom spot, followed by Livepeer (LPT) with a 6.9% decrease and Helium (HNT) with a 4.9% decrease.
The overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is currently $2.34 trillion, with Bitcoin dominating at 54.1%.
The sell-off of large tech stocks has had an impact on the stock market, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closing down 0.88% and 2.05% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.56%. Friday marked the sixth consecutive decline for the S&P 500, the longest continuous decline this year.
The overall market weakness can largely be attributed to signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts. The latest comments from several Fed officials indicate that interest rates may not be cut in 2024 due to persistently high inflation.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond rose 205 basis points at the close of this week, and the US dollar index rose 0.15%.
According to the “Net Flow of Large Holders” indicator from blockchain analytics company IntoTheBlock, Bitcoin addresses holding at least 0.1% of the supply added 19,760 BTC worth over $1.2 billion at an average price of $62,500 on Friday. IntoTheBlock stated in a post, “Bitcoin whales may finally be starting to buy on dips. Historically, the accumulation by these addresses has often preceded the rise in Bitcoin’s price.”
In an article published on April 19th, cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital stated, “The ‘danger zone’ for Bitcoin pullbacks before halvings (the orange zone in the chart below) has completed its mission. In this danger zone, Bitcoin has experienced two -18% pullbacks. Halving is today, which means the danger zone is officially over.”
The halving is another exciting moment in Bitcoin’s history. Some are concerned that it may become a “sell-the-news” event, while others believe that the positive effects of the halving have already been priced in.
Ryan Grace, the head of tastycrypto, stated in an interview with Bloomberg that he does not believe the halving date will be a catalyst for price movements and it is likely to be a “sell-the-news” event. Traders have already bought Bitcoin before the halving, and any adjustments are expected to be short-lived. Taking the recent ETF approval as a reference point, BTC corrected -20% after the news was announced.
He added, “There hasn’t been a definitive conclusion to previous halving cycles. After the 2016 halving, Bitcoin was down 10% in one month, and after the 2020 halving, it was up 8% in one month. In both periods, Bitcoin’s price fluctuated within a range of 20% in the month following the halving.”
Regarding Bitcoin’s performance in the 6 to 18 months after the halving, Grace concluded, “If this cycle follows the previous four-year halving cycles, we could see BTC price exceed $150,000 at its peak. More importantly, the existence of ETFs and increased global liquidity will drive the price up after the halving, rather than the halving itself.”
Analysts from Ryze Labs stated in a report that the macro environment is still one of the factors investors need to pay attention to. They said, “Over the past weekend, there was a widespread sell-off in the market due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, affecting both traditional and cryptocurrency assets. This occurred after Iran launched a drone attack on Israel, sparking concerns about further action by Israel or its allies.”
During these tensions, Bitcoin fell to a low of $60,800 and then rebounded to $65,000, while most altcoins experienced a drop of approximately 25-30%. Ryze Labs analysts stated, “This movement highlights that Bitcoin has not yet been seen by institutional investors as a ‘safe haven’ asset like ‘digital gold,’ as there was no significant inflow of funds during this period.”
Data shows that the BTC funding rate sharply turned negative, with annualized rates dropping to lows between -40% and -60%. Similarly, the BTC 3-month annualized basis briefly reached a yearly low of 4.85%. These indicators reflect strong bearish sentiment in the market driven by widespread liquidation of long positions and increased short selling.
Ryze Labs pointed out that the hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell initially stirred the market, but the market reaction was relatively muted, indicating potential seller fatigue. The analysts advised continuing to monitor upcoming inflation data as a key indicator for future Fed monetary policy direction.
Author: Bitpush News Mary Liu
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Tags:
2023 market trends
ETF
IntoTheBlock
halving
altcoins
whales
Bitcoin
spot Bitcoin ETF
Federal Reserve
inflation
interest rate cuts
Note: All articles from Bitpush represent the author’s viewpoint and do not constitute investment advice.
Original article link: https://www.bitpush.news/articles/6625054
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