Ballensweig believes that the gradually decreasing supply of Bitcoin, totaling 164,000 BTC (12 billion USD) annually, combined with the net new demand from ETFs, could lead to a significant long-term increase in the price of Bitcoin. Data supports this claim, as the average Bitcoin return rate one month after all previous halving events in history was only 1.67%, while the average Bitcoin return rate one year after halving events was as high as 3,211%, highlighting the difference between short-term and long-term impacts.