Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed $64,000 over the weekend, but lost the support level in early Monday trading. The start of the week saw significant volatility in the crypto market. According to CoinPush data, BTC surged to a high of $65,545 in the early hours but quickly reversed its trend after news broke that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had issued a Wells notice to Robinhood’s crypto division, accusing it of securities violations. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $63,115, a 1.5% decrease in the past 24 hours. Other cryptocurrencies showed mixed performance, with Ethereum (ETH), DOGE, SHIB, and MATIC dropping 2%-3%, while Solana (SOL) and XRP rose 4%-6%.
BTC has yet to complete its correction, with a next upward target of $92,000. John Glover, Chief Investment Officer of crypto lending firm Ledn, stated that there is still a possibility of a downturn in Bitcoin price before it completes the correction that followed its all-time high of $73,000 in March. Glover based his prediction on the Elliott Wave Theory, a technical indicator that assumes asset prices repeat certain patterns of fluctuation. He said, “While the correction to $56,500 may have completed, I still expect the price to reach $52,000-$55,000 before the completion of the fourth wave correction.”
The theory suggests that market trends often repeat a pattern consisting of five upward waves and three downward waves. The first, third, and fifth waves represent the major trend, while the second and fourth waves are the corrections between the impulsive price movements. Glover concluded, “Once the downward/corrective waves are complete, I expect the fifth wave to push the price up to around $92,000.”
Other bullish sentiments include the renewed demand for Bitcoin call options with strike prices of $75,000 and $100,000 in September, as observed by crypto hedge fund QCP Capital. This indicates investors’ optimism about BTC climbing to higher prices in the coming months. Bernstein analysts also reiterated their prediction that BTC will reach $150,000 by the end of 2025 and stated that BTC is “far from finished with its upward cycle” in a report to clients on Monday.
Analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra said, “We feel better about this call, and indicators suggest it’s a healthy cycle but still in the early stages. The risk-reward here remains attractive.” They noted that the dip to around $56,525 was positive for the market as it “cleared out excess leverage from cryptocurrency exchange futures contracts.”
The analysts also highlighted that after eight consecutive days of outflows, U.S.-listed spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw inflows again on Friday. Notably, after 78 consecutive days of outflows, Grayscale’s GBTC recorded a net inflow of $63 million on Friday. The analysts stated, “Considering GBTC has been a source of consistent selling pressure and the new nine ETFs have had to absorb that selling, this number is significant.”
Other positive factors mentioned by Bernstein analysts include strong overall ETF fund inflows in the past three months, increased interest in corporate Bitcoin purchases, stable hashrate and transaction fees after the halving, and low prices of Bitcoin mining equipment.
Mike Martin, Content Manager at tastycrypto, also viewed last week’s correction as a healthy development in the market and predicted that Bitcoin will stabilize around $60,000 in the short term. He stated, “Looking towards the end of the year, it is entirely possible for Bitcoin to reach $80,000. However, this forecast depends on several more favorable factors, including clearer signals of monetary policy and potential lower interest rates, which may reignite investment interest in risk assets like Bitcoin.”
He added that the clarity of interest rate cuts “will be the key to reigniting the Bitcoin bull market. This move could improve broader market sentiment and encourage investment in cryptocurrencies as an alternative to traditional investments, which may offer lower returns in a low-rate environment, particularly in the case of U.S. dollar depreciation.”
Vijay Marolia, Co-founder of The Cash Square, also believes that the bottom may have already arrived and expects the Bitcoin bull market to continue this year. He stated, “Technically, I wouldn’t be surprised (in the short term) if the price drops to the $50,000 level—I think the bottom may have already arrived, so I expect the Bitcoin bull market to continue this year, as Bitcoin’s price is inversely proportional to the confidence in global fiat currencies.”
As for catalysts to reignite the bull market, Marolia pointed out that “the Federal Reserve (or other major central banks) taking more accommodative policies; any additional increases in government spending (taxed or inflated); and any surge in 10-year Treasury yields and/or downgrades in the U.S. credit rating.”
Emmanuel Quezada, CEO of U-topia, stated, “While accurately predicting market tops or bottoms is challenging, it can be asserted that the current discount price provides significant opportunities for achieving new ATHs by 2024.” He added, “Considering the current market trends and the impact of institutional order flow on market cap, the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in the next quarter is high. Market corrections often stem from uncertainty. Therefore, regulatory clarity within the market framework is a key driver in guiding liquidity towards favorable directions.”
Author: BitpushNews Mary Liu