Bumpy Ride in the Bull Market: Why You Shouldn’t Be Bearish Right Now

Maybe we are not in a “altcoin bear market”, but the market is returning to quality assets.
By Regan Bozman
We have just launched the top spot ETF in history, and the production of Bitcoin has been halved. Trump has gone crazy, and you are still bearish? Investors are just expressing their pain, not conducting objective analysis. Let us look back at the journey we have taken and look forward to how far we have to go.
Every bull market will experience months of volatility, and this time is no exception.
There are two views on the current situation:
(A) Return to quality assets
(B) All infrastructure venture tokens have been messed up
I think A is correct.
Let’s analyze the current situation. Why do people think we are in a bear market? Why are they wrong? Why do we still have so much room for growth?
People say that this cycle is over because the things they hope to rise have not risen: meme tokens, BTC, 90% of venture capital is not allocated to these assets, and most new venture tokens have performed poorly in 2024.
Obviously, capital flow is an important part of this story, but many venture tokens were issued with huge oversupply.
However, capital flow is not the only part of the whole story. The way tokens are issued in the current market is also very stupid.
If you issue at $1 billion and reach $5 billion in 6 months, you will be ecstatic;
But if you issue at $10 billion and have only $5 billion in 6 months, you will be frustrated.
I don’t intend to write 47 tweets to discuss how stupid it is to issue at certain levels, bearish positions, and high FDV/low float issuance. But this issuance strategy, like macro flows, is the cause of the current bear market. This is really bad!
We set the trend of this “bear market” ourselves!
We need truly amazing retail flows to offset the selling pressure of dozens of ultra-large-scale FDV issuances. But now retail investors are receiving free funds from “Eigen Daddy”, so there are no buyers. Charts like “$DYM only goes down” are everywhere.
Even blue-chip venture stocks like $ARB have been performing poorly, approaching the low point of the 2023 bear market. Calls have been made for months—the biggest risk for any token is that the selling pressure from venture capital far exceeds the inflow of retail investment, and this is obviously happening.
The “bluest” blue chip-ETF.
Most venture capital firms (including us) have increased their holdings of ETH, and it has performed poorly in this cycle. Therefore, venture capitalists are not happy! It looks like a grand funeral from the timeline.
But I think it is wrong to say that this cycle is over!
Previous cycles have had months of volatility or pullback periods, which is nothing new. If you want to get more than 100 times return in an industry, you must accept the drastic market fluctuations.
Let’s take a closer look at the performance of altcoins. The Total3 index tracks the top 150 tokens excluding Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
Yes, since the local peak, the overall market has fallen, but in the previous cycle, there were several equal or larger-scale pullbacks.
Maybe we are not in an “altcoin bear market”, but the market is returning to quality assets. I mentioned Dymension earlier, and as far as I know, they only have one customer, and the number of new users added last week was less than 10,000. Maybe such a project should not be valued in the tens of billions.
Teams that issue in a smarter way perform better. For example, $SAFE was issued in a volatile market, but it has a 42% circulating supply, and the price chart is more stable, indicating real price discovery around $1.7 billion FDV.
Teams that have done cool things have also performed well. For example, Ethena is very innovative and has performed better than most other projects. So maybe not all venture tokens are over, only the zk modular da solutions that are being iterated over are over.
The current trend is shifting from redundant infrastructure to consumer applications, which is very healthy. I believe that the valuation of the public market will reflect this in this cycle.
Leading user-oriented applications will be the decisive factor in this cycle, as they vertically integrate and capture more value.
Layer3 announced their token this morning. They are already the second-largest application on Base, second only to Uniswap. The winners of this cycle will be those with unique allocations, and @layer3xyz definitely belongs to this category.
Kudos to Fantasy.top and Pump.fun, who have been at the forefront without even issuing tokens. That’s when the real fun begins.
We still have a long way to go. It may take more than 90 days for financial advisers to add new stocks to their approved allocation lists, and ETFs were approved 120 days ago.
Institutional time-weighted average price (TWAP) investments have just begun.
Bitcoin ETFs are still not included in most macro strategies. Considering the market value of cryptocurrencies, the amount of funds in these ETFs is astonishing.
At least until November, cryptocurrencies becoming a topic in the US election is bullish for the market.
More attention will bring more market participants.
Of course, some attention may be negative, and many people hate cryptocurrencies, but in this case, you may not have any selling points 🙂
Sorry to disappoint those who hate us, but we are still bullish.
Tags:
2023 market situation
ETF
Bitcoin
Trump
Source link:
https://www.techflowpost.com/article/detail_17780.html
Note: The views expressed in this article are only those of the author and do not constitute investment advice.
Original article link: https://www.bitpush.news/articles/6719763
Related news:
NYDIG: Futures data highlights trader positions
Research: Which stage are we in this bull market cycle?
[Daily Market Dynamics of Bitpush] Long and short are anxious, option data suggests that BTC will continue to adjust in the short term
Bitcoin trend reverses
Coin Metrix: Explaining the consequences of Bitcoin halving