X Perspective
1. Benson Sun (@BensonTWN): Bitfinex ETH Whale Quietly Accumulating ETHBTC Position
Recently, ETHBTC has been falling for over a month, and it must have been tough for ETH holders. However, since the exchange rate dropped below 0.054, the main force behind Bitfinex ETH has been continuously leveraging long ETHBTC. At the current rate of position-building, they can buy over 10,000 ETH in a day.
The financial strength of the main force behind Bitfinex ETH is absolutely beyond imagination. In the last bull market in July 2021, during the period of ETH price decline, this force demonstrated astonishing power. They placed orders for tens of thousands of ETH, and when those orders were all filled, they continued to place more orders, single-handedly resisting the panic selling pressure in the market. It was truly incredible.
The blue line in Figure 1 represents the ETHBTC whale indicator that I created. As long as the blue line is rising, it means that the main force is accumulating long positions in ETHBTC (indicated by the green arrows in the figure). The steeper the slope, the faster they buy. When the accumulation reaches a certain level, the exchange rate will bottom out. On the other hand, if the line is dropping rapidly (indicated by the red arrows in the figure), it often means that the exchange rate is not far from its peak.
From a long-term perspective, it can be said that the exchange rate of ETHBTC is tightly controlled by this main force. When they want to buy, they create a bottom, and when they want to sell, they create a top.
When I posted Figure 1 back in September last year, I was bearish on ETHBTC because the whale had no intention of holding the exchange rate. I advised everyone to exchange their ETH for BTC.
It wasn’t until January 9th that I discovered the whale was rapidly building positions (as shown in Figure 2). Coincidentally, it was the eve of the BTC ETF approval, and I wrote an article expressing a bullish view on ETHBTC. Shortly after, the exchange rate skyrocketed by 20%.
And now, the whale has made another move. Since the exchange rate dropped below 0.05, they have started accelerating their position-building. Last time, when the positive news about BTC landed (BTC ETF approval), the exchange rate surged by 20%. Will it also experience a similar surge after the halving this time?
If you’re interested, you can take a look at the ETHBTC transaction records on Bitfinex. They are filled with market buy orders.
This is also why I believe that altcoins should become stronger after the halving. When the positive news about BTC completely lands in the first half of the year (BTC ETF & halving), the focus of capital will not remain solely on BTC. As the leader of altcoins, ETH will lead a group of altcoin juniors to surge together.
In the last bull market, ETH also started to rally after the halving. The historical trajectory may not be exactly the same, but it often rhymes.
=========Update=========
The ETHBTC position accumulated by the Bitfinex whale has exceeded the scale of the BTC ETF approval eve on January 9th. They currently hold around $600 million worth of ETH.
On the other hand, the gas fee on the ETH network is currently at a freezing point below 10 gwei. Compared to the whale’s relentless buying attitude, it’s truly a world of contrasts.
2. Chris Burniske (@cburniske): Previous Halving Cycle Performance
In case lettuce hands need a reminder.
3. Pyhrex (@Phyrex_Ni): Investors Increasing BTC Holdings
From the current holding data, small-scale investors have shown a trend of slightly increasing their BTC holdings in the past 24 hours. High-net-worth investors have an even more significant trend of increasing their holdings. Looking at the data from the past week, both groups show signs of increasing their holdings.
02
On-Chain Data
@0xCryptoChan: Current BTC Long-Term Holders continue to distribute chips
Fortunately, current BTC long-term holders continue to distribute chips, which may ensure that there is still room for imagination in the future bull market. The black line in the graph represents the BTC price, and the orange line represents the proportion of chips held by long-term holders (holding coins on-chain for more than 155 days). Coins that have not moved for more than 7 years are considered long-term dormant or lost and are excluded from the calculation. When this indicator shows a declining trend, it means that BTC long-term holders are distributing chips.
@cs_zhaozilong: Ethereum has entered the accumulation phase on the spot market
Currently, Ethereum has entered the accumulation phase on the spot market. Based on past data on main force accumulation, at this position, the main force will create a 10% downward space to acquire chips. Therefore, it is advisable to buy spot Ethereum between 2900-2700 and divide the purchases.
During the topping phase, you will feel that the price is strong and cannot fall. During the bottoming phase, you will feel that the price is weak and cannot rise. The specific behaviors are as follows: Topping phase behavior: the price keeps going near the new highs and sometimes breaks slightly above them. At this time, FOMO sentiment starts, with many people predicting a price of 100,000 for Bitcoin and 10,000 for Ethereum. Bottoming phase behavior: the price keeps going near the new lows and sometimes breaks slightly below them. At this time, FUD sentiment starts, with many people predicting a price of 10,000 for Bitcoin and 1,000 for Ethereum.
03
Sector Analysis
According to Coinmarketcap data, the top five coins in terms of 24-hour popularity are GALA, NPC, GPU, ONDO, and ORBS. According to Coingecko data, the top five sectors in terms of price increase in the crypto market are Retail, IOT, Gemini Frontier FUND, Events, and Berachain ecosystem.
Focus on Hotspots – Why do various “gurus” have bullish or bearish views at the market crossroads?
After the crash in the early morning of April 14th, the legendary trader GCR (who previously shorted DOGE, SHIBA, and LUNA at the top) publicly expressed a bullish view. This post has now received nearly 9 million views and 55,000 likes on X. GCR said, “If your position is not enough, this will be a good opportunity for you to expand your holdings of tokens with strong consensus. If you are already fully invested, then hold on, stick to your spot positions, and don’t surrender. Someone once said that the essence of liquidation is to transfer wealth from leveraged traders to wealthy spot holders. I have retired from social media, but I don’t want to see my brothers being eliminated in the future when the situation is still so bright.”
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has become one of the most influential “gurus” in the market. Earlier this month, Arthur predicted that from April 15th to May 1st, the annual US tax season (April 15th is the tax deadline) would drain market liquidity. Combined with the continuous tapering of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and the upcoming halving of Bitcoin on April 20th, the market may experience extreme weakness in the short term. However, starting from May 1st, with the Federal Reserve slowing down the pace of tapering and the US Treasury using funds to stimulate the market, a new round of crypto bull market may begin. With the consecutive days of significant decline, Arthur also changed his tune and started to be bullish. On April 15th, Arthur posted on X, saying, “The bottom is here, let’s go!”
On April 16th, Arthur once again stated, “Until this weekend before April 15th, the Bitcoin and gold trends have been synchronized. It was also this weekend that the situation between Israel and Iran escalated, and Bitcoin prices plummeted while gold happened to be closed for trading. On Monday, gold did not show any volatility after the market opened, while Bitcoin continued to fall. The overall trend of Bitcoin remains unchanged (still works), people just need to pay their taxes.”
Chris Burniske, former crypto lead at ARK Invest and current partner at Placeholder VC, previously accurately predicted a significant market pullback after the approval of ETFs. After this round of decline, Burniske also repeatedly expressed a bullish view. This morning, Burniske tweeted, “There is significant panic in the market, but the price has stabilized within a reasonable range, and excessive volatility has been eliminated. This will lay the foundation for a price increase.” Afterwards, Burniske also retweeted a post about “you actually liquidated four days before the halving” with a picture of a whale eating, possibly implying that whales are buying up chips sold by panicked retail investors at low prices.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise (left in the picture), has always been a representative “perma-bull” for Bitcoin active on social media. When Bitcoin fell due to higher-than-expected CPI and delayed rate cuts last week, Hougan stated, “I don’t think higher-than-expected CPI will disrupt the upward trend of Bitcoin prices. Whether the Federal Reserve cuts rates in June or not is not a long-term driving factor for Bitcoin prices, but only a marginal factor. The flow of ETFs and the growing deficit are more important factors, and all these data are positive for Bitcoin.”
Bearish
When explaining the logic behind liquidation, 10x Research stated that the main reasons are:
1. We are increasingly concerned that risk assets (stocks and cryptocurrencies) are at a critical point and may experience a significant price correction. The main triggering factor is unexpected and sustained inflation. Current bond market predictions indicate that there will be fewer interest rate cuts, while the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has exceeded 4.50%. We may have reached a crucial turning point for risk assets.
2. It must be understood that trading is a continuous game full of opportunities. The key to trading is to continuously analyze the market and identify opportunities at favorable times. Sometimes we advocate strategies that increase risk (to gain more returns), and at other times, preserving capital is the top priority, allowing you to seize opportunities when the risk level is lower.
Tags
web3 Research
Bitcoin
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Note: The views expressed in all BitPush articles represent the author’s opinions and do not constitute investment advice.
Original article link: https://www.bitpush.news/articles/6633145
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