After being suppressed by the 30-day moving average for a month, BTC (Bitcoin) finally saw a trend reversal: not only did the price break through the 30-day MA and surge to 66k, but it also continued to rise, pushing the 5-day MA above the 30-day MA. This is the first time since April 14th that the 5-day MA has crossed above the 30-day MA.
The catalyst for this reversal is as mentioned in the May 15th article “Internal Reference: BTC Breaks Through the 30-day Moving Average” macro section, the continued slowdown in US inflation data has strengthened expectations of loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. “If the belt gets wider, there will be no regrets, and for the sake of it, people will not be exhausted!” With the widening of the belt by the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin is getting higher and harder. No matter how wide the belt is, it’s not enough if it’s not hard. Bitcoin can do it because it is fundamentally hard. So, in the end, it is important to be strong from within. Winning against the enemy has always been a thousand times more important than external factors.
In the article “Satoshi Nakamoto’s Divine Hand” two days ago on the 14th, Liu Jiaolian mentioned, “At present, BTC does not have the conditions for long-term decline at all, and the shorts have long been cut off at the bottom of the pot. The shorts who shorted at this position will undoubtedly pay a heavy price for their lack of wisdom. Their wiped-out positions will become sacrifices for this bull market.”
Liu Jiaolian further emphasized, “The current price has already reached 79,000 dollars, while BTC is still hovering around 60,000 dollars. This means that BTC is trading at a discount to its ‘fair value.’ This is a good opportunity to add positions.”
Going back to the 11th, in the article “JPMorgan’s Secret Plan,” Liu Jiaolian revealed that while JPMorgan’s CEO publicly sang a bearish tune about BTC and their analysts wrote reports predicting a drop to 42k after the halving, it was disclosed by the US SEC that they had already increased their holdings of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT and Bitwise’s BITB. They played a good game of thirty-six strategies.
In the May 15th article “Internal Reference: BTC Breaks Through the 30-day Moving Average,” it was also mentioned that according to official disclosures from the US regulatory agency SEC, the Wisconsin state pension fund, a traditional financial “elephant,” has also entered the market and holds BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF. This is truly surprising and shocking! Only BlackRock has the ability to persuade and help conservative and conservative funds like pension funds to act and participate quickly, which is also very impressive!
The next step for BlackRock is to show the first batch of these conservative funds the value preservation and appreciation of the assets. After all, investing is like seeking medical treatment, and everyone “looks at the effect, not the advertisement”! If the effect is good, it will create a demonstration effect, which will help BlackRock to attract more large customers to follow suit and buy into their IBIT.
And the rise of BTC will have a precise impact on the US dollar. As Liu Jiaolian pointed out in the April 22nd article “Financially Defeating the United States,” “Rising gold and Bitcoin is like launching a hypersonic precision-guided missile, directly hitting the financial lifeline of the United States—the US dollar.”
Regarding the Hong Kong spot Bitcoin ETF, Liu Jiaolian already calculated in the May 14th article “Internal Reference: Miners Face Selling Pressure After Halving,” considering the difference in total market size between the Hong Kong ETF market and the US ETF market, as well as the fact that the Hong Kong BTC ETF was listed later than the US BTC ETF, the current performance of the Hong Kong BTC ETF is actually comparable to that of the US BTC ETF. It is expected that the Hong Kong BTC ETF will continue to work hard and take this opportunity to stage a beautiful comeback.
Retail investors in the stock market often say, “If it stays flat for too long, it will fall.” However, this phrase does not apply to BTC. The fall is due to gravity. And BTC is gravity. 1 BTC is always equal to 1 BTC. The growth chart of BTC is actually the chart of the falling US dollar. So, as Liu Jiaolian wrote on May 9th, “Bitcoin Never Falls”: “It’s not Bitcoin overcoming gravity. Bitcoin is gravity. It’s not Bitcoin taking off, it’s the US dollar falling.”
As mentioned in Liu Jiaolian’s article “The Only Way Ahead for Bitcoin is Up” on April 16th, “Essentially, when we talk about the rise of BTC, we are actually talking about the fall of fiat currencies and other assets (such as gold).” “From the perspective of BTC, BTC has never really risen. 1 BTC is always equal to 1 BTC. It’s just that the number of BTC that can be exchanged for 1 US dollar or 1 ounce of gold is decreasing.”
With the emergence of expectations for loose monetary policy, not only BTC but also gold rebounded to nearly the historical high of $2400 per ounce. As mentioned in Liu Jiaolian’s article “Bitcoin is About to Surpass Gold Again” on May 8th, the value of 1 BTC is about to surpass the value of 1 kilogram of gold. In this halving cycle, BTC has sounded the horn of surpassing US stocks and catching up with gold. This was Liu Jiaolian’s assertion in the December 2022 “2022 Year-End Review and Outlook Report.” Liu Jiaolian straightforwardly stated in the April 23rd article that “Gold, although good, is not suitable for individuals.”
On April 20th, at 8 am, BTC officially completed its fourth halving. In Liu Jiaolian’s article “Bitcoin’s Golden Halving,” this historic event was detailed. The article stated, “After this halving, Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) hardness will surpass the hardness of the hardest asset on Earth, gold, making it the hardest asset in the history of this blue planet, which Liu Jiaolian calls a ‘giant hard’ asset.”
On May 2nd, Liu Jiaolian asked in the article “Who is Throwing in the Towel?” that “What is different this time compared to previous cycles is that we have already entered the ‘faith-rejection’ stage before the halving. This is a test of people’s hearts.” “After the halving and before the bull market takes off, every pullback is getting closer and closer to the ‘last opportunity to get on board’.”
“Only those who are not afraid to implement the eight-character principle of ‘buying more on dips’ are qualified to hold positions through bull and bear markets and enjoy the fruits of the bull market surge.”
On May 1st, Liu Jiaolian wrote in the article “Full Position!” as part of the ten-year real trading plan, reporting on the 22nd piece. The article announced that all the bullets accumulated had been fired at a price of $57,824.
At the end of the article, it was also pointed out, “In any case, from the perspective of the power-law model, if funds can be held for more than 2 years, until early 2027, prices below $70,000 are actually highly likely not to incur losses.”
From April 15th, when the 5-day moving average crossed below the 30-day moving average and BTC entered a downtrend, to May 15th, when BTC broke through the 30-day moving average in a strong manner, in just one month, it seemed as if everything had changed. How many people regretted it, how many people were filled with sorrow? How many people revealed their true nature, how many people destroyed beauty with their cruel actions? How many people left in disappointment, how many people are still sitting on the sidelines? How many people are leisurely strolling, how many people have flawless jade?
(WeChat Official Account: Liu Jiaolian. Knowledge Planet: Reply “Planet” to the official account)
(Disclaimer: The content of this article does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly risky assets and have the risk of becoming worthless at any time. Please participate with caution and take responsibility for yourself.)
Tags:
Liu Jiaolian
Investment Insights
Bitcoin
Essays
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Original article link: https://www.bitpush.news/articles/6733766
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