According to Coinmarketcap, the top five cryptocurrencies by 24-hour heat ranking are: Smidge, NOT, BTC, STRUMP, PEPE. Coingecko data shows that the top five sectors by gains in the crypto market are: Base ecosystem, Doggone Doggerel, Memes, Real Estate, and Berachain ecosystem.
Spotlight Focus—How low will BTC plummet due to Mt.Gox payouts? Can the crypto market still experience a dramatic turnaround?
This marks the first time Mt.Gox has made repayments in BTC and BCH, with its holdings of 141,686 BTC (and a nearly identical amount of BCH) accounting for 0.72% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply, valued at approximately 85.4 billion USD. The numbers suggest significant selling pressure, but what will be the actual impact? Let’s analyze from a data perspective.
Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, previously estimated the inflow of BTC funds from institutional holdings in an article. Kang believes that, overall, Bitcoin spot ETFs have now accumulated over 50 billion USD in AUM (Assets Under Management), which is quite an optimistic figure. However, if the funds related to GBTC are excluded, the net inflow of funds is reduced to 14.5 billion USD. In fact, this number needs further reduction as it still includes many “delta neutral” trades, particularly “Basis Trades” (such as buying ETFs while selling futures) and “Spot Rotations” (selling spot to buy ETFs). Based on CME data and analysis of ETF holders, approximately 4.5 billion USD of capital inflow is related to “Basis Trades”; moreover, some ETF experts have pointed out that large institutions like BlockOne have conducted substantial “Spot Rotations,” estimated to be around 5 billion USD. Excluding these “delta neutral” trades, we can infer that the actual net inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs is about 5 billion USD.
