Has the bull run come to an end? Most people may have lost their way.
Author: Mu Mu
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been unpredictable, and many people have started to think that this is a strange bull market where everyone is not making money. Some even complain that this is the hardest bull market in history for making money in Bitcoin. Therefore, people who have always followed the idea that “when the market is good, everything looks like the future, and when the market is bad, every project looks like a mess” have started to doubt their lives, doubting the value of the entire cryptocurrency industry, thinking that the bull market is about to end…
It’s always hard to make money in a bull market
Although this bull market is strange, after going through so many bull markets, one should have been used to it. As analyzed in the previous article “Has the logic of the Bitcoin bull market quietly changed, and many people still can’t make money?” it is not that money cannot be made in this bull market, but rather that making money in every bull market is not easy. It should be noted that most of the people who made money in the past few rounds did not just enter the market during the bull market. Those who only smelled the “money-making” opportunity in the bull market will only realize later that the money they made was actually provided by themselves.
The real winners are those who can pass through the bull and bear markets without any loss. In these years of ups and downs in Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market, many famous gold seekers have emerged. People like the Wall Street genius trader SBF and Do Kwon, known as the “Korean Musk,” have all failed in the cryptocurrency market. The lessons learned from their experiences are simple: apart from being impatient and not fearing risks, the most important thing is the “cryptocurrency values” are wrong.
For a long time, many traders, including SBF and many others, have considered themselves “smart people” entering the cryptocurrency market, not necessarily because they recognize the value brought by Bitcoin and cryptocurrency assets, but because they think there are many “fools” here who are willing to buy “air” Bitcoin at low prices and sell them to the fools in this market. However, what they did not expect is that no one can escape the fate of “big fish eat small fish” in this highly free market. In any industry, those who do not enter with the correct industry values, do not recognize the industry’s value, and enter with the mentality of “harvesting leeks,” are destined to not do well in this industry. Even if they initially taste the sweetness, they will soon be bitten back by the market.
Perhaps many people have forgotten the original intention of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency industry, and the distorted values may result in serious judgment errors in the end.
What’s wrong with value projects?
In this bull market, it is very obvious that many “value projects” hyped by VCs and old-school cryptocurrency value projects such as Ethereum, Layer2, Metaverse, and DeFi that have been under development in the cryptocurrency market for many years seem to have not received market recognition. Instead, people seem more willing to participate in NFTs and Memes. This makes people reflect on what went wrong with the many years of “cryptocurrency value projects.”
Actually, the market cannot be blamed for not adopting “value projects,” but rather that “value projects” are truly flawed! Recently, we have observed that Ethereum GAS prices have even dropped to 1, some Layer2, Metaverse, DeFi projects with little daily activity, new VC projects that have not even started, are valued at billions or tens of billions. With such poor data and such high market value, it gives people a feeling of extremely overvalued bubble. Of course, no one will be willing to buy in naively. Instead, it is better to directly invest in Meme projects with lower market value and reject all kinds of deceptive practices.
For a long time, many people have focused too much on the surface and ignored the underlying causes. In fact, it is not that value projects have lost their value, but the valuation of many value projects is not solely measured by active users. Because behind them, there is a TVL of tens of billions or even hundreds of billions, which cannot be ignored.
Moreover, the prevalent “mining” movement in recent years has not only bred a large number of false users but also made it difficult for new VC projects to be valued and difficult to focus on doing things, which has evolved into a problem for the entire Web3 industry. A large amount of false traffic and users have to some extent hijacked these projects. Some organizations have even taken advantage of the market’s unhealthy atmosphere for highly customized purposes: to deceive VCs, they create apparently star-studded teams, and customize “value projects” for the “miners.” Nobody cares about the technology, nobody cares about whether it solves real needs and problems. Such VC projects with distorted value orientation are doomed to fail, even if they initially taste the sweetness, they will soon come to a bitter end.
Therefore, people have found that impurities have been added to both new and old “value projects.” If a fly in the ointment can ruin a pot of porridge, let alone this is a common phenomenon… So, if you can’t clearly see the value, then not buying in becomes the best strategy.
Nevertheless, we cannot completely deny the majority of projects that adhere to the original values of cryptocurrency. Bitcoin has brought transparency and self-management of assets, realizing the sanctity of personal property; Ethereum, including Layer2 and other smart contract platforms, has brought a “trusted” operating environment for Internet applications, pushing the Internet from online to on-chain… After being baptized, we believe they can still stand firmly in the cryptocurrency market and continuously correct themselves.
The logic of the bull market has changed but has not changed
The logic of the bull market has changed but has not changed, after all, most altcoins are just receivers of value overflow after Bitcoin rises. When the price of Bitcoin enters the high range, it is difficult to go higher, so people find that many new narrative, low market cap altcoins seem to be “value oases.” Therefore, driven by FOMO emotions, some capital chooses to flock to these peripheral altcoins, the “small reservoirs,” as they require only a small amount of capital to achieve several times or even dozens of times gains. People slowly realize this logic of the bull market.
However, this year, in addition to various new and old altcoins, Meme projects have bloomed everywhere. The market has found that FOMO sentiment value can also be collected in a container. Since FOMO sentiment can be directly put into Memes, why waste time in those full of various “mouse droppings,” the “altcoin traps” prepared everywhere for retail investors?
Therefore, Memes have directly diverted the funds that were supposed to flow to altcoins, the logic of the bull market has changed, but it has not changed. It’s just that a circle of Meme pools has emerged next to the altcoin pool to receive the funds overflowed from Bitcoin.
Has the bull run come to an end? Most people may have lost their way.
For many people, they are caught in the dilemma and contradiction of whether the bull market has ended, whether there are still altcoin bulls, etc. But what I want to say is since we have long known that for most people, “the bull market does not necessarily make money, and the bear market does not necessarily lose money,” why care so much about whether it’s a bull market or not?
Taking a lesson from history, let’s take a look at the price chart of gold over the past 100 years. You will find that Bitcoin, this digital gold, and gold have many similarities on the price chart:
1) If you extend the timeline, the early price trends almost turn into a straight line regardless of bull or bear market.
2) Prices fluctuate, with cycles, always maintaining a long-term upward spiral channel.
Therefore, it is a high probability conclusion that, like gold, Bitcoin will always be best allocated on dips over 100 years.
Gold and the scale of US Treasury Bonds are positively correlated
Represented by the United States, the world has long entered the path of creating huge debts with printing money, and the only way to resolve the ever-increasing debt is to keep printing money…
Conclusion
Recently, factors such as the debt settlement in Mentougou and government sell-offs have brought significant negative impacts to the market. However, the good news is that these “swords of Damocles” hanging over the cryptocurrency market have disappeared. If we extend the timeline, the “bull” will always be there. Therefore, there is no need to worry at all. Just quietly hold on to the original values of cryptocurrency and patiently embrace the new era.
Tags
DeFi
Layer2
VC
Ethereum
Metaverse
Bitcoin
Gold
Source Link:
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUyNzE4MDM2MA==∣=2247525425&idx=1&sn=de03…
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article do not constitute investment advice.
Original Link: https://www.bitpush.news/articles/6919283
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