BTC (Bitcoin) surged to $70,000, while ETH (Ethereum) approached $4,000. After a small response from the SEC, the market quickly interpreted that the SEC might compromise and determine that ETH is not a security, and that staking ETH is. Yesterday, the Inner Reference “Reasons for the Over 20% Surge in ETH” provided a more comprehensive interpretation from macro to micro perspectives, without going into detail.
BTC reaching $70,000 is like standing at the top of a mountain (the previous high in 2021 was $69,000). Thomas Bubendorfer, a free solo climber, said, “Life is like climbing.” Liu Jiaolian, the author of “Bitcoin History,” said that hodling BTC is also like climbing a mountain.
I climb because the mountain is there. I hodl because the cake is there.
Free solo climbing a cliff without any protection, being hundreds of meters above the ground with a thousand-meter abyss below, life and death hanging by a thread, my mind is focused only on the present moment, with no distractions from the outside world, no past or future. Hodling is the same: I concentrate, only in the present moment, taking each step without looking back, without joy or sorrow, without attachments, without fear, walking every step well, tranquility leads to distance, and eventually reaching the destination.
If hodling is compared to free solo climbing, then each time the “buy the dip” strategy is executed, it is a firm and solid step forward.
The cake is the same, the mountain is the same. But using different methods to enter and exit the market is like using different methods to climb a mountain, resulting in completely different sports.
Only when you reach the top of a mountain and stand at the summit will you realize that there are more mountains beyond, waiting for you to challenge and conquer.
Life is fleeting, like a momentary fireworks. The joy and meaning of life are found in the process of climbing rather than the final outcome. There is no end to the outcome, the mountain, or the cake.
As time passes by, day and night are inseparable. Life has its limits, but knowledge is limitless. With our short and limited life, we drift and fluctuate in the endless river of history. Whether we seek achievements or just a place to settle, we must have a clear understanding of the current historical trend, a sober understanding.
On a smaller scale, to succeed in investing, one also needs to understand the current stage of the economic cycle and the direction of future evolution. In early 2016, the late “Cycle King” Zhou Jintao said in a speech, “To get rich in life, rely on Kondratieff waves.”
“Kondratieff” refers to the long economic cycle of 50-60 years proposed by Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev in his 1926 work “The Long Waves in Economic Life,” also known as the “Kondratieff Cycle” or the “Kondratieff Wave.” In the tenth chapter of the 2020 book “Bitcoin History” completed by Liu Jiaolian, it is specifically introduced in the 40th episode “The Great Depression.”
In this section, Liu Jiaolian wrote, “2019 was the turning point from the recession phase to the depression phase in the fifth Kondratieff cycle of mankind.” Of course, the judgment of this turning point varies from person to person (Zhou Jintao believed that the depression stage began in 2016). Only when the entire cycle is completed, people will look back and have a sudden realization of the boundaries between prosperity, recession, depression, and recovery.
In the book, Liu Jiaolian wrote about strategies for anticipation and response. “In the depression phase, the way to counter the shrinkage of assets is defense, shifting from proactive assets (such as stocks) to defensive assets that maintain value (such as gold).”
Therefore, after completing the book in the second half of 2020, Liu Jiaolian liquidated the 300-stock index fund of the A-share market and started to build positions in dividend index funds with more defensive characteristics. In the article “Comprehensive Rise!” on May 21, the A-share market was mentioned. More than three years have passed, and looking back now, the strategy transition back then allowed the fund to avoid the major A-share market downturn in 2022-2023 and achieve profits. Careful readers can compare the difference in the rise and fall of the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index and the dividend index since 2021. I don’t know if the A-share market has a great free charting website like TradingView. I can only show a real-time chart:
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Is the dividend index rising a lot? Not really. So, before 2024, most forums discussing A-share trading activities were posts like “Why I don’t recommend buying dividend index funds.” Securities firms would never start “kindly” educating people about dividend indexes like they do now. When the aggressive 300-stock index reverses and rises, I guess the big V in the stock market and securities firms will collectively turn around and criticize dividend indexes. Think independently, don’t believe in big V’s blindly.
As for gold, it is a more defensive asset. Between 2021 and 2022, it fluctuated around $1,800 per ounce. Since the beginning of 2024, it has broken through the oscillation range of $1,600-$2,000, opening up a new upward channel.
Liu Jiaolian analyzed that gold is suitable for national reserves, and the gold suitable for personal reserves is “digital gold” – BTC (Bitcoin). On April 23, 2024, Liu Jiaolian wrote a special article titled “Gold is Good, But Not for Individuals” to explain again.
In the “Great Depression” episode of “Bitcoin History,” Liu Jiaolian also pointed out, “It was from 2008 onwards that major central banks around the world shifted from net outflows of gold reserves to net inflows. Among them, the central banks of Russia and China are major gold buyers.”
After writing this sentence, Liu Jiaolian starts a new paragraph and begins with “learning from history,” stating, “1929 was the turning point from the recession phase to the depression phase in the third Kondratieff cycle of mankind.”
The book introduces the economic Great Depression of 1929-1933 and its consequences, which “led to the outbreak of the Second World War (1939-1945).”
Is 2019 another 1929? Since 2019, the trade war (2019), the global pandemic (2020), the financial war – the Fed’s interest rate hike (2022), the Russia-Ukraine conflict (2022), the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (2023), and so on… people are increasingly feeling that the world is becoming more turbulent. So much so that the term “Season 3” has become popular online.
How devastating can the Kondratieff depression be? In “History,” Liu Jiaolian quotes a sentence from the book “Glory and Dream”: “Millions of people only escaped death by living like animals.” Please note that this sentence is not describing the Third World, but the United States, from 1929 to 1933.
Afterward, Liu Jiaolian summarizes the evolution path of that great upheaval a hundred years ago in the book: “This profound economic crisis led to the emergence of Keynesianism, which advocates government intervention in the economy. It also caused liberals to be attracted to Marxism unscathed by the economic crisis and transformed into conservatives. Fascism, political spectrum polarization, ideological fragmentation, and ultimately led to war.”
Today, American interventionism has reached new heights: in terms of trade, legislation imposing tariffs and interfering with free trade; in finance, manipulating the cycle of the U.S. dollar in an attempt to harvest the world; in property rights, unilaterally imposing sanctions and even directly confiscating overseas assets of individuals from other countries, tearing apart the sacred inviolability of capitalist private property; in terms of speech, violating the constitution through the “Anti-Semitism Awareness Act” and seizing TikTok to control speech and thought; in terms of technology, not promoting scientific development but engaging in a propaganda war, attempting to suppress public opinion to cover up the hidden problems that prevent a return to manned lunar missions.
Back then, the mad little mustache led Germany and Europe into the abyss. Today, the American people must bravely stand up and interrupt the historical process of American blackening.
In 1933, President Roosevelt came to power. He confiscated the gold of the American people with an iron fist, devalued the U.S. dollar, completed internal looting, and used it to overcome the Great Depression. The history, as well as the famous “Executive Order 6102,” is described in detail in the 41st episode “The Great Gold Heist” following the “Great Depression” in “History.”
It seems that the United States has not reached this stage yet. However, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike is still not proceeding smoothly, and its attempt to harvest the world is hitting a wall. Will a certain group of people develop a murderous intent towards another group of people, sharpen their knives, and prepare for internal harvesting, which could be almost inevitable?
Internal factions in the United States have already started to lay out their positions in order to occupy a relatively advantageous ecological position in the imminent internal conflict, to be the reaper rather than the lamb, to be on the dining table rather than the menu.
The “Anti-Semitism Awareness Act” has reserved a seat at the table for Jews. The “Asian Subdivision Act” has added an item to the menu for Chinese.
However, our ancient sages’ wisdom is that extremes breed reversals. So what if they have a seat at the table? Whoever has the strength to flip the table can turn the honored guest at the table into a dish on the table at any time.
Therefore, both the elites and the ordinary people need to leave themselves an escape route and be prepared to run away at any time. Where to run? Of course, it is to places where the U.S. military cannot reach. This is the Eastern Empire and BTC. This is when it becomes apparent why BTC is a better form of gold. Carrying gold is impossible to run. In the TV series “Undercover,” Yu Zecheng could only hide the gold bars in the chicken coop. If it were BTC, he could have sent it to the organization through the radio.
“The East is about to dawn, so don’t say the king is leaving early. After traveling through the green mountains, people are not old, and the scenery on this side is the best.”
What similarities do the Eastern Empire and BTC have? Two words – stability. The Eastern Empire steadily develops its economy, builds warships, and goes to the moon. BTC steadily creates blocks, creates blocks, creates blocks.
In this Kondratieff depression cycle, whoever can maintain stability will attract the attention of people around the world and attract global free capital.
If the United States cannot overcome the crisis after the next internal conflict and internal harvesting, is it possible that it will continue to take the path of Nazi Germany and directly export war?
Back in 1929, there was the Great Depression, and in 1939, Germany launched a blitzkrieg against Poland. Ten years after 2019 is 2029. This is a critical juncture. Coincidentally, before 2030, according to our plan, manned lunar missions will probably be realized.
When the lighthouse goes out, the red sun in the East rises slowly, and it becomes daylight. Once the sun comes out, there is no need for a lighthouse.
However, the night before dawn is the darkest and coldest. That is the last frenzy before breaking through the critical point.
A little mustache with aircraft carriers and nuclear warheads is extremely dangerous to the world.
We must prepare in advance, disarm his power, and quickly have the ability to subdue his forces.
If more people awaken, learn from the lessons of the Kondratieff cycle from 1929 to 1939, interrupt the historical process, and prevent madmen from coming to power, perhaps the world can peacefully survive this wave of Kondratieff disaster.
There are five years left. The clock has started its merciless countdown. Tick tock, tick tock…
