We are here to invest, not to gamble.
Is MeMe coin really devouring VC coin?
No, this is just an illusion of collective market consciousness. This illusion is called short-term memory dependence in neural network learning and often occurs in market analysis.
This thread will use quantitative comparative analysis to compare the data of MeMe coin and VC coin in terms of 7-day rolling volatility, correlation, and price seasonality during this rising cycle (October 2023 to present), and review their true relationship.
To ensure the consistency of the comparative analysis, we will divide MeMe coin and VC coin into three categories: classical blue-chip coins, emerging white-horse coins, and newly-listed star coins.
Classical MeMe coin blue-chips DOGE, SHIB vs classical VC coin blue-chips AAVE, UNI, DOT, MKR
From the perspective of price seasonality, classical MeMe coin blue-chips and BTC have a strong resonance in terms of seasonal factors, with a strong impact on prices at the beginning of the month. However, classical VC coin blue-chips have a certain time lag with BTC’s seasonal factors.
From the perspective of 7-day rolling volatility, UNI’s structure is consistent with SHIB’s institution, with two abnormal volatility peaks in this rising cycle.
SHIB’s two abnormal volatility peaks are almost synchronous with BTC, and DOGE’s volatility peak has the same characteristics. This means that the hedging property of classical MeMe coin blue-chips against BTC volatility is weakening.
The results of the correlation matrix once again verify the changing attributes of classical MeMe coin blue-chips. In this rising cycle, the correlation between SHIB and BTC is 0.53, and the correlation of DOGE is even higher, reaching 0.72.
Summary: The attributes of classical MeMe coin blue-chips have severely degraded, and they exist more as highly liquid blue-chip tokens.
Emerging white-horse MEME coins PEPE, FLOKI vs emerging white-horse VC coins TIA, RNDR, Mobile
TIA has a stronger seasonality compared to PEPE and FLOKI, no wonder there are market voices mocking TIA as the biggest MEME in this cycle.
In terms of 7-day rolling volatility, TIA is also the undisputed leader, not the brightest star among current MeMe coins as expected.
In terms of correlation, it is also very interesting. In this rising cycle, the correlation between TIA, Mobile, and BTC is almost 0, while the correlations of PEPE and FLOKI with BTC are 0.61 and 0.46, respectively.
Summary: Among emerging white-horse coins, the secondary market characteristics of VC coins are more similar to MeMe coins.
Newly-listed star MeMe coins BOME, SLERF vs newly-listed star VC coins ENA, Aevo
Because they are new coins, we set the time interval from March 1st to the present.
During this period, BTC’s seasonal factors have a weak influence, with Aevo’s seasonal factors mainly negative, and SLERF’s seasonal factors having a strong influence.
Since April, both VC coins and MeMe coins have shown a rapid decline in 7-day volatility.
In terms of correlation, it is still beyond expectations. Among them, BOME has a correlation of 0.61 with BTC, ranking first.
Summary: Since April, VC coins have become less correlated with BTC, with low 7-day volatility. This is the main source of FUD sentiment towards VC coins in the market.
Conclusion
The secondary market price characteristics of VC coins and MeMe coins are not so distinct. They do not have a mutually exclusive relationship, but rather exhibit periodic mutual reversals at different stages of their lifecycles. Since April, the declining volatility and weak correlation with BTC of newly-listed star VC coins have made it difficult for secondary market traders to profit, which is the main reason for the FUD sentiment towards VC coins in the market.
However, as rational investors, we need to understand clearly that the phenomenon of MeMe new coins > VC new coins is only a two-month periodic phenomenon. Do not easily assume that MeMe coins will be the only ones in the future, and do not fill your investment portfolio with MeMe coins. Overseas KOLs who market themselves during this wave of meme periodic frenzy are not trustworthy; Western celebrities who issue coins during this wave of meme periodic frenzy are 100% prone to RUG. Please remember, we are here to invest, not to gamble.
Tags:
Aave
DOT
MEME
MKR
UNI
Crypto market
Market trends
Source link:
https://x.com/0xNing0x/status/1796826443600842914
Note: The opinions expressed in this article represent the author’s views and do not constitute investment advice.
Original article link:
https://www.bitpush.news/articles/6837250
Related news
【Bitpush Daily Market Dynamics】 BTC continues to retreat, future trends depend on the Federal Reserve
34 charges proven, will the “cryptocurrency emperor” Trump be imprisoned or return to the White House?
After the decline of American election meme coins, where is the next opportunity to get rich?
【Bitpush Daily Market Dynamics】 Trump’s serious charges proven, meme coins related to him plummet by over 30%
How should Web3 projects view the “leek-cutting” behavior of liquidity providers?
