Bitcoin’s Safe-Haven Narrative Not Meeting Expectations
Bitcoin’s safe-haven narrative isn’t living up to its mythical status, according to JP Morgan, with investors instead preferring to put their cash into gold amid recent market volatility spurred by President Trump’s global trade war.
Analysts at the top investment bank said in a Thursday report that gold exchange-traded funds and futures are receiving most of the investment action, as speculators look for a safe bet.
Gold’s price has soared since last year, and this week hit a new high over $3,660. Bitcoin has dropped since it broke a new record in January. It has been trading sideways this month, and is more than 20% off its record high near $109,000, set on Jan. 20, the day of U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration.
Bitcoin in the past has correlated to the precious metal, and advocates describe the top cryptocurrency as “digital gold.” But the asset—which began trading in 2009—has in recent years correlated with U.S. equities, especially tech stocks.
“Bitcoin has failed to benefit from the safe haven flows that have been supporting gold in recent months,” the JP Morgan report said, noting that while investors have pumped money into gold ETFs, speculators have cashed out of the new American crypto ETFs.
Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. briefly overtook their gold counterparts in December, thanks to the virtual coin’s price increase, before losing ground to them.
Trump’s November election helped boost crypto prices, as the Republican campaigned on helping the digital asset industry by ratcheting back regulations the industry deemed unfair.
But a combination of geopolitical uncertainty, President Trump’s aggressive tariffs, and fears of a recession have led investors to go to the ultimate safe-haven asset: gold.
Bitcoin was changing hands near $85,000 on Wednesday, roughly where it started in April, according to crypto data provider CoinGecko.
It has fared better than major equity indexes, which have lost ground this month with the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq both off by about 6%.
Edited by James Rubin