Facing a strong Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, the crypto market remained stable in early trading but trended lower in the afternoon as traders looked to reduce risk exposure amid increased uncertainty about future interest rates.
Data released by the US Department of Labor showed that non-farm payrolls increased by 272,000 in May, exceeding economists’ expectations of 182,000 and surpassing April’s 165,000. Despite the increase in employment, the unemployment rate rose to 4.0% for the first time since January 2022, exceeding the expected 3.9%.
The increase in the unemployment rate indicates a higher likelihood of another rate hike, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield surging nearly 14 basis points to 4.43%. By the closing bell, major US indices were down, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq falling by 0.11%, 0.22%, and 0.23%, respectively.
Following the NFP report release, Bitcoin briefly surged to $72,000, then lost support at $71,500, leading to selling in the afternoon. BTC fell to an intraday low of $68,300, before bargain hunters pushed it back above $69,100. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $69,250, down 2.1% in the past 24 hours.
**Cryptocurrency Market Suffers Heavy Blow**
With the CPI report set to be released next week, traders began to exit the market, resulting in a significant decline in altcoins in the afternoon. Most of the tokens ranked in the top 200 by market capitalization experienced losses.
Among the gaining tokens, meme coin cat in a dogs world (MEW) and Highstreet (HIGH) rose by 26.5% and 17.8%, respectively, while RSS3 (RSS3) increased by 6.5%. On the other hand, BOOK OF MEME (BOME) led the declines, falling by 15.8%, followed by Aveo (AVEO) down by 15.7%, and Yield Guild Games (YGG) down by 13.7%.
**JPMorgan Delays First Fed Rate Cut Expectation from July to November**
Due to stronger-than-expected US May employment data, JPMorgan economists have pushed back their forecast for the first Fed rate cut from July to November.
Earlier, JPMorgan was one of the few institutions still predicting a rate cut by the Fed in July. The bank’s US chief economist Michael Feroli now expects the Fed to cut rates for the first time in November, with consecutive rate cuts next year. Following the release of the May NFP data, Feroli stated, “The possibility of a rate cut in July now appears remote.”
Continuing to monitor next week’s US May CPI data and the Fed’s monetary policy decisions, investors are focused on short-term volatility and long-term upward trends in the cryptocurrency market.
**Short-Term Fluctuations, Long-Term Upward Trend**
Prior to the NFP release, BTC’s open interest in futures contracts soared to a record high of $37.66 billion, reflecting positive market sentiment and expectations of new highs for Bitcoin in the coming weeks.
Secure Digital Markets analysts believe that despite the bubble market typically indicating an impending price correction, the lack of speculative fervor in most perpetual futures tied to cryptocurrencies suggests that the recent trend above $70,000 may be more sustainable than the breakout in March.
The four-year cycle of Bitcoin is also a factor in the market, as historical data indicates that the cryptocurrency market tends to rise within a year of Bitcoin halving, regardless of external efforts to halt the uptrend.
Stratos founding partner Rennick Palley stated in a report that the peak of the current cycle is expected to occur at the end of 2025, with BTC reaching a high of $150,000. He added that the altcoin market is expected to remain strong from the second half of 2024 through 2025, with popular concepts including meme, RWA, AI, and modular blockchains like Ethereum L2.
According to AlphaPoint co-founder and CEO Igor Telyatnikov, based on historical data and previous cycle patterns, Bitcoin is predicted to reach a new all-time high (ATH) of $210,000 during this bull market period.
Telyatnikov noted that the prediction takes into account the cumulative effect adopted by institutions, technological advancements providing scalability, and regulatory clarity. The current cycle is expected to last around 1,500 days, extending until the end of 2025. Each cycle after the halving is generally longer than the previous one, with increasing market maturity and infrastructure improvements lengthening the duration of each cycle.
Telyatnikov’s forecast suggests that the new ATH will be reached on October 11, 2025, which is the 560th day after the halving on April 19, 2024. This prediction is based on patterns observed in the past three cycles, with intervals between halving and ATH slightly longer, indicating a similar extension in the duration of the current cycle.
Factors that may hinder market rebound and trigger the next bear market include global regulatory crackdowns or unfavorable legislation, severe economic downturns or financial crises leading investors to withdraw from risky assets like cryptocurrencies, significant technical vulnerabilities or hacks severely impacting market confidence, and over-leverage and speculation potentially causing significant market corrections akin to previous cryptocurrency winters.
Source: BitpushNews Mary Liu