Dawn is breaking, but the probability of approval this year is close to zero.
Written by Nan Zhi
On the evening of the 27th Beijing time, market news indicated that VanEck has submitted an application for a Solana ETF, igniting the token market within the Solana ecosystem. The price of SOL briefly surged above $150 USDT, with ecosystem leaders like WIF and RAY seeing over a 10% increase within an hour.
Subsequently, Matthew Sigel, Director of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, confirmed this news on the X platform. VanEck has indeed applied to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a Solana ETF, named the VanEck Solana Trust. This marks the first Solana ETF application in the United States.
Regarding the application for a Solana ETF, Matthew stated, “Solana is a competitor to Ethereum, capable of handling transactions for payments, trading, gaming, and social interactions. Operating as a single, global state machine without the need for sharding or Layer 2, the Solana blockchain provides a superior user experience. We believe its high throughput, low costs, robust security, and strong community make Solana an attractive choice for an ETF, offering investors a versatile and innovative open-source ecosystem.”
While this development signifies a milestone in Solana’s history, the road to actual approval remains distant in terms of time and process.
Founder of Wintermute, Evgeny Gaevoy, was quick to pour cold water on the enthusiasm, stating, “The likelihood of a SOL ETF being approved this year is almost zero. It would be naive to think it’s a priority for the current administration. Even if approved, the inflow of funds would likely be minimal compared to what we’ve seen with ETH ETFs.” Evgeny added that Wintermute supports both SOL and ETH in the long term but emphasized the need for realistic expectations, acknowledging that widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies takes time.
Previously, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, who garnered attention for Bitcoin applications, also commented. He suggested that if there’s a change in the White House or SEC personnel, related applications might emerge sometime in 2025, but uncertainty remains. James stressed the importance of monitoring whether other issuers will follow VanEck’s lead after its submission of the first SOL ETF in the U.S.
Reflecting on VanEck and ETFs, the SEC received its first Bitcoin ETF application as early as 2013, though it stalled due to market immaturity. In 2018, the Bitcoin ETF applications reached a peak, with VanEck being one of the pioneers. VanEck, in partnership with SolidX, applied for a Bitcoin ETF, but it was rejected on February 27, 2019.
In October 2021, ProShares’ Bitcoin Futures ETF was approved and began trading, followed by VanEck’s Bitcoin Futures ETF in the same month. However, VanEck’s Bitcoin spot ETF was rejected the following month, finally gaining SEC approval three years later in January of this year.
The journey to a Bitcoin ETF has been fraught with challenges, each significant step taking years to progress. While the dawn of a Solana ETF appears, the path to approval remains equally distant.
The debate over whether Ethereum should be classified as a commodity or security has hindered the approval of an Ethereum spot ETF. The recent approval of an Ethereum spot ETF in May was achieved after modifications by applying institutions to ensure ETH does not involve yield farming. Additionally, the SEC’s announcement on June 18 concluded its investigation into Ethereum 2.0, signaling a positive shift in attitudes towards staking tokens, possibly reclassifying tokens previously deemed securities as commodities.
While the status of other cryptocurrencies as commodities or securities remains unresolved, posing a significant obstacle to ETF approvals, leading institutions like VanEck continue to strategically position themselves for applications.
Matthew Sigel, Director of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, expressed his viewpoint, “Why do we consider SOL a commodity like BTC and ETH? We believe SOL’s native token functions similarly to other digital commodities, used for transaction fees and computational services on blockchain platforms. Like ETH on Ethereum, SOL can be traded on digital asset platforms or used for peer-to-peer transactions. SOL’s decentralized nature, high utility, and economic viability align with the characteristics of other mature digital commodities, further reinforcing our belief in SOL’s potential as a valuable commodity.” However, this perspective is solely that of VanEck, and whether the SEC will approve a Solana spot ETF in the future remains to be seen.
Maintaining cautious optimism
Although approval for a Solana ETF still appears distant given the current market conditions, crypto market trading often hinges on speculative expectations rather than waiting for news to materialize. Each significant development could potentially trigger a wave of upward movement for tokens within the Solana ecosystem. However, amidst this process, market volatility remains high, with frequent fluctuations, prompting Odaily to remind investors to be vigilant and use leverage cautiously.
Tags: ETF, Solana, VanEck, Ethereum
Source link: https://www.odaily.news/post/5196360