Monday’s cryptocurrency market rally continued to fall back, with Bitcoin experiencing a slight rebound and consolidation around $67,000-$68,000 after a brief dip to around $65,000 over the weekend, resulting in a drop of over 8% from its previous all-time high. Ethereum briefly fell below $3,500 but recovered to above $3,500 by the end of the U.S. stock market session, with a 24-hour decline of nearly 3%.
Among the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, only Solana (SOL) and Avalanche (AVAX) achieved positive gains in the past 24 hours. Dogecoin had the largest decline, at 6%, while BNB, ADA, and others had declines of around 3%.
According to data tracked by Santiment, SOL and the meme token The Book of Meme (BOME), built on Solana, are the most popular tokens in the past two days. SOL’s price has surged 45% in the past seven days, surpassing $200 for the first time since December 2021, but still below the historical high of $259.96 in November 2021. Binance launched perpetual futures for BOME on March 16, and since its listing on March 10, BOME has surged 82%. Santiment stated in its market report, “BOME and SOL are the two most popular assets on X, Reddit, Telegram, and 4Chan, as their recent performance has outperformed the market. People still consider Solana and its meme tokens as viable alternatives to Ethereum’s ecosystem.”
According to Santiment, the number of mentions of “SOL” on social media has increased to 322. At the same time, Google Trends, which measures interest in popular topics, briefly showed a value of 100 for global search queries for “solana.” A value of 100 represents the maximum number of searches observed for a term within a given time range. This indicates that more and more people are browsing information about Solana online.
The popularity of the Solana ecosystem and its rebounding token prices will correspond with the data tracked by Top Ledger and OurNetwork, showing that the trading volume of decentralized exchanges built on Solana has reached $30 billion this month, ten times more than a year ago.
Bitcoin is currently in a correction period before the halving, and Standard Chartered Bank predicts that it will reach $150,000 by the end of the year. Some analysts believe that based on historical trends, Bitcoin is in a correction period before the halving. Cryptocurrency trader and independent analyst Rekt Capital posted on X that the continuous price trend is part of the pre-halving correction, with Bitcoin falling 38% and 20% during the halving cycles in 2016 and 2020, respectively.
Lucas Kiely, Chief Investment Officer of Yield App, also warned that Bitcoin is entering a “danger zone” before the halving. Kiely believes that the price trend of Bitcoin in the past week is a prelude to future turbulence and a clear signal to fasten seat belts in the “danger zone” before the halving. In the days leading up to the halving, Bitcoin plummeted 40% in 2016 and 20% in 2020, and we are simply preparing for the price trend before this halving cycle. Kiely predicts a 20% pullback for Bitcoin, continuing to fluctuate around $60,000.
However, Standard Chartered Bank has raised its year-end price prediction for Bitcoin from $100,000 to $150,000 and expects the peak of the BTC 2025 cycle to reach $250,000, stabilizing around $200,000. Standard Chartered Bank has become one of the more crypto-friendly traditional banks, with an active Bitcoin research team. The bank’s analysts previously predicted that Bitcoin’s price would reach $100,000 by the end of 2024.
Standard Chartered Bank’s analysis is based on a comparison with gold prices after the introduction of a gold ETF in the United States and the correlation between ETF inflows and BTC prices. The report states, “We believe the analogy with gold – in terms of ETF impact and optimal portfolio – still provides a good starting point for estimating ‘correct’ mid-term price levels for Bitcoin.”
In another report, Standard Chartered Bank stated that a spot Ethereum ETF is expected to be approved on May 23, resulting in inflows of up to $45 billion in the first 12 months. By the end of 2024, the price of Ethereum is expected to rise to $8,000. The report states, “By 2025, we expect the ETH/BTC price ratio to rebound to the 7% level seen for most of 2021-22. Given our estimated end-2025 BTC price level of $200,000, this implies an ETH price of $14,000.”
The pre-halving correction coincides with the end of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 20. After last week’s inflation data exceeded expectations, investors are paying attention to possible signals of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Goldman Sachs economists have changed their forecast for Fed interest rate cuts, now expecting three cuts this year instead of the previously predicted four. The swap market has also lowered its bets on Fed rate cuts, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in June now less than 50%.
So far, Bitcoin’s price continues to be directly influenced by macroeconomic events, and further regulatory actions and monetary policies by the Federal Reserve may continue to affect Bitcoin’s price.