The resistance level of $62,000 – $63,000 seems to be the biggest obstacle for Bitcoin’s continued upward movement. According to terminal data, Bitcoin fell to around $61,700 three times during Tuesday’s trading before rebounding. As of the time of writing, the trading price of Bitcoin is $63,731.24, with a 24-hour volatility of less than 1%.
Most of the top 100 altcoins experienced a mixed performance, with the majority showing a decline in value. Celestia (TIA) led the gains with a 14.50% increase in the past 24 hours, followed by meme coin Pepe (PEPE) with a 6.14% increase and Fantom (FTM) with a 4.05% increase. Pendle (PENDLE) experienced the largest decline, dropping by 10.98%, followed by Ondo (ONDO) with a 10.41% decline, and Ethena (ENA) with an 8.77% decline.
The overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is currently $2.29 trillion, with Bitcoin’s dominance rate at 53.88%.
The three major U.S. stock indexes failed to gather any positive momentum. At the close, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both slightly declined, falling by 0.21% and 0.12% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly by 0.17%.
Bitcoin reserves on exchanges may deplete by January next year
According to a new report from cryptocurrency exchange Bybit, the recent introduction of a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has made this week’s halving unique and unprecedented, and the eventual result may be the depletion of Bitcoin reserves on exchanges by January 2025.
Bybit stated, “Bitcoin began its recovery in October last year (2023), about six months before the halving in April 2024. However, it was also in October when large traditional financial giants started applying to operate Bitcoin spot ETFs.”
Since the trading of ETFs began, the rate at which Bitcoin reserves on centralized exchanges are being consumed is faster than any other period. With TradFi strengthening their sales teams and marketing funds to capital-rich retirees and other investors, this new demand is expected to continue.
Analysts wrote, “CEX Bitcoin reserves are down to only 2 million coins. Assuming there is a daily inflow of $500 million into Bitcoin spot ETFs, approximately 7,142 bitcoins will flow out of exchange reserves every day. This means that it will only take 9 months to deplete all remaining reserves.”
Bybit analysts also pointed out that data shows miners are selling their reserves at a much faster rate than before the halving in 2020. This may exacerbate the supply shortage after the halving and potentially lead to a rapid depletion of CEX reserves. They stated, “Meanwhile, the propaganda surrounding Bitcoin halving will revolve around Web 2.0, resulting in FOMO-driven behavior from new investors.”
Bybit has made some recommendations based on their analysis.
They wrote, “It is wise to take profits within six months after the halving, before the end of 2024. Past cycles have shown a 12-month window after the halving. However, we have observed more bagholders before the halving, limiting the upside potential after the halving.”
Investors await geopolitical tensions to ease
CryptoQuant analysts stated in a report that “prior to this week’s Bitcoin halving (expected on April 20), investors have reduced their investment in BTC and may be waiting off-exchange for the Middle East situation to stabilize.”
According to data from market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, there are 1 million addresses that have purchased over 530,000 BTC at an average price of $64,300, which can serve as an important support level. But if this support level is breached, the next major support level is around $56,000. IntoTheBlock stated, “While this does not mean that Bitcoin has to drop that low, it is good to keep this range in mind when exploring recent lows.”
Tom Dunleavy, a cryptocurrency analyst and partner at MV Capital, pointed out in an analysis of the current Bitcoin market structure that the percentage of realized value by long-term holders exceeds 40%, which is much higher than the 10% historically defined as the top of BTC. The analyst stated, “With many ongoing catalysts (halving, further ETF inflows, BTC L2), there is no reason to doubt a continued pullback in the near term, followed by a full-speed march towards $150,000 by early 2025.”
Author: BitpushNews Mary Liu