On Thursday, the cryptocurrency market saw a slight rebound from recent trading lows, but prices remained far below the high point set in March, as volatility and weakness continued to dominate the market.
At the time of writing, there were less than 30 hours left until the next Bitcoin (BTC) halving, and cryptocurrency supporters were eager to get back on track with a bull market. Since Bitcoin broke through $64,000 in early March, the market has been in a state of correction.
According to Bitpush data, Bitcoin rebounded from its low of $59,650 on Wednesday and reached an intraday high of $64,200 on Thursday before falling back to support at $63,300.
In the top 200 market cap coins on Thursday, there were mixed gains and losses. Livepeer (LPT) saw the largest price increase, rising 12.7% to $13.27, while Jito (JTO) rose 10.9% and Centrifuge (CFG) rose 8.5%. Meme coin cat in a dogs world (MEW) fell 11.7%, leading the decline, while Core (CORE) fell 9% and Sui (SUI) fell 7.3%.
The overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is currently $2.3 trillion, with Bitcoin’s dominance rate at 54.2%.
Concerns about US inflation and interest rates continue to be the root cause of volatility. Atlanta Fed President Raphael W. Bostic reiterated on Thursday that he does not expect a rate cut before the end of the year. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also stated that patience is needed until inflation comes down, which may not happen until 2025.
The US stock market opened lower, climbed into positive territory in the middle of the trading day, and then fell back into the red at the close. The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq index fell 0.22% and 0.52% respectively, while the Dow remained unchanged. Despite the stock market decline, the US dollar index rose 0.4% to 106.152, and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose 7.6 basis points to 4.638%.
Analysts at Secure Digital Markets stated, “The S&P 500 index experienced volatility as Wall Street sought stability after consecutive declines. The Nasdaq, particularly affected by the weakness in technology stocks, fell more than 3%, suggesting that the Nasdaq may experience its fourth consecutive week of decline, the longest slump since December 2022.”
They pointed out, “Overall, the recent stock market decline can be attributed to weakened rate cut expectations, prompting investors to take profits after a strong performance in the first quarter of this year.”
Analysts: BTC may reach the next peak in September or October next year
The recent weakness in Bitcoin over the past few weeks has been attributed to the outflows from spot BTC ETFs, which have seen negative net flows since Friday. Data shows that the outflow reached a recent peak of $165 million on Wednesday, led by Grayscale’s GBTC with $133.1 million, while BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin product recorded the lowest inflow of just $18.1 million.
Although with the halving event and the easing of ETF flows, it is expected that the price will continue to trade sideways in the short term, most analysts expect Bitcoin’s price to eventually resume its upward trend.
Market analyst Rekt Capital stated that based on the previous halving cycle, BTC may reach the next peak in mid-September or mid-October 2025. He added, “The current market conditions show that spot premiums are higher than futures, reminiscent of the trend when Bitcoin was trading around $40,000, indicating a decrease in speculative trading, which is a favorable sign.”
Bearish sentiment indicates market bottom?
Market intelligence firm Santiment stated that with the recent drop in Bitcoin prices, the sentiment of cryptocurrency investors has turned bearish.
In a post on April 18, the company shared a chart showing that the crypto community had made consistent bearish comments about Bitcoin and other tokens like Ethereum: “People have maintained a bearish sentiment towards mainstream coins, which strengthens the argument for further upside.”
The chart shows that since Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $73,835 on March 14, the number of mentions of “bull market” or “bull cycle” on crypto social media has decreased, while the mentions of “bear market” or “bear cycle” have steadily increased. Historically, bearish sentiment is often observed at market bottoms.
Santiment analysts wrote, “Historically, price trends have been contrary to the expectations of the general traders. A rapid decline in FOMO combined with a significant increase in FUD is a hopeful combination, and the crypto market may see a recovery before or after the halving.”
Data from Alternative.me, a platform tracking Bitcoin social media sentiment, shows that the cryptocurrency fear and greed index has dropped significantly from 76 last week and 79 last month, but it still remains in the “greed” zone, currently at 57.
This indicates that despite more than a week of price adjustments, trader sentiment is gradually becoming optimistic.