62,000 to 63,000 US dollars seems to be the biggest resistance for Bitcoin to continue its upward trend. According to terminal data, Bitcoin fell to around 61,700 US dollars three times in Tuesday’s trading, then rebounded. As of the time of writing, the trading price of Bitcoin is 63,731.24 US dollars, with a 24-hour volatility of less than 1%.
Most of the altcoins experienced a small decrease in price, with the majority of the top 100 altcoins in terms of market capitalization falling. Celestia (TIA) led the gains with a 14.50% increase in the last 24 hours, followed by meme coin Pepe (PEPE) with a 6.14% increase, and Fantom (FTM) with a 4.05% increase. Pendle (PENDLE) experienced the largest decrease with a decline of 10.98%, followed by Ondo (ONDO) with a decline of 10.41%, and Ethena (ENA) with a decline of 8.77%.
The overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is currently 2.29 trillion US dollars, with Bitcoin’s dominance at 53.88%.
The three major US stock indices failed to gather any positive momentum. At the close, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both slightly declined, falling by 0.21% and 0.12% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly by 0.17%.
Bitcoin reserves on exchanges may be depleted by January next year
According to a new report from cryptocurrency exchange Bybit, the recent introduction of a US spot Bitcoin ETF has made this week’s halving unique and unprecedented, with the potential result being the depletion of Bitcoin reserves on exchanges by January 2025.
Bybit stated, “Bitcoin began its recovery in October last year (2023), and there are still about six months until the halving in April 2024. However, it was also in October that large traditional financial giants began applying to operate Bitcoin spot ETFs.”
Since the start of ETF trading, the rate at which Bitcoin reserves on centralized exchanges have been consumed has been faster than any other period. With TradFi strengthening its sales force and marketing funds to capital-rich retirees and other investors, this new demand is expected to continue.
Analysts wrote, “CEX Bitcoin reserves are only 2 million coins, and if we assume that $500 million flows into Bitcoin spot ETFs every day, approximately 7,142 bitcoins will flow out of exchange reserves every day. This means that it will only take 9 months to deplete all remaining reserves.”
Bybit analysts also pointed out that data shows miners are selling reserves at a much faster rate before the halving compared to before the halving in 2020. This could further exacerbate the supply shortage after the halving and potentially lead to a rapid depletion of CEX reserves. They stated, “At the same time, the hype around Bitcoin halving will occur in Web 2.0, resulting in FOMO-driven behavior from new investors.”
Bybit has come up with some recommendations based on their analysis. They wrote, “It is wise to take profits within six months after the halving, by the end of 2024. Past cycles have shown a twelve-month window after the halving. However, we observed more bag holders before the halving, which limits the upside after the halving.”
Investors await geopolitical tensions to ease
CryptoQuant analysts stated in a report that “investors have reduced their exposure to BTC and may be waiting off-exchange for the Middle East situation to ease before this week’s Bitcoin halving (expected on April 20).”
According to data from market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, one million addresses bought over 530,000 BTC at an average price of $64,300, which can serve as an important support level. But if this support level is broken, the next major support level is around $56,000. IntoTheBlock stated, “While this does not mean that Bitcoin has to fall this low, it is a good range to keep in mind as the price explores recent lows.”
Tom Dunleavy, cryptocurrency analyst and partner at MV Capital, pointed out in his analysis of the current Bitcoin market structure that the percentage of realized value by long-term holders is over 40%, much higher than the 10% historically defined as the top of BTC. The analyst stated, “With many ongoing catalysts (halving, further ETF flows, BTC L2), we see no reason to doubt a continued pullback in the short term, followed by a full-speed move towards $150,000 by early 2025.”
Author: BitpushNews Mary Liu