1. Public chains/infra competition enters a white-hot stage, and the competition in the ecosystem/GTM becomes the next focus. One surprising thing about this event is that many founders of top Western projects personally came to Hong Kong and were very active in promoting and participating in multiple events. Projects such as Eigenlayer, StarkNet, TON, and Berachain were all actively promoting themselves in the market. This fully demonstrates the fierce competition in the current public chain sector. It is clear that the investment narrative of “fat protocols” may not be accepted by retail investors and the market in this bull market. The excess infrastructure will inevitably eliminate some “ghost towns”. It is very important to attract developers and users. In the current situation where web3 talent and user base are very limited, it is very difficult to achieve both quantity and quality. It takes time to educate and cultivate developers and users. We can see many attempts to be compatible with EVM and provide smoother user experiences, which may be the right path.
2. Bitcoin’s Asian power in the ecosystem is still mainstream, with differences in thinking between East and West. Although the enthusiasm for Bitcoin has cooled down, it is still one of the main topics of this conference. From a macro perspective, everyone generally agrees that the upcoming halving, ETF fund inflows, miner incentives, retail investors chasing narratives, and institutional entry are all positive factors. However, there is still too much noise in the Bitcoin ecosystem, with countless L2 solutions, many so-called infrastructure projects having lifecycles comparable to ordinary applications, and immature and non-consensus technology roadmaps. The current competition in L2 mainly focuses on applications and TVL, and it is uncertain when BitVM will be developed. At present, the upcoming Runes may be worth looking forward to, and legitimate projects in L2 infrastructure will gradually emerge, as well as projects that bring new vitality.
3. The application side is still very early, making it difficult for institutions to judge value, and there are no obvious popular projects for retail investors to participate in. More than one person expressed nostalgia for the emergence of StepN in the past, and currently, there is no such brilliant application. Looking back at the applications at the conference, the volume is relatively weak. The only lively one is the Farcaster meeting. One problem on the application side now is that institutions find it difficult to establish clear value judgments among the overwhelming number of applications, and the lifecycle of applications is generally much shorter than that of public chains. By the time institutions unlock, many investments will undoubtedly be lost, which leads to the obvious dilemma and clustering on the application side. Institutions only want to invest in “top-tier” projects, and application projects without institutional endorsement find it difficult to gain early market flow and trust. Even at the Farcaster gathering, there were still very few people who personally experienced this application, but it also indicates that the application side is still in its early stages and has great opportunities, especially on the basis of promoting their own ecosystem on public chains. For retail investors, they should pay special attention to early-stage application products, which are good opportunities for high-risk and high-return. Tokens of leisure applications such as Ethxy and Frenpet have all achieved hundreds of times gains.
4. The presence of exchanges has weakened, but it is still the best business model in the industry. Exchanges seem to be less dazzling in this conference than before, possibly because they have adopted a low-profile mode of making money. There is no doubt that exchanges are still the best business model in the industry, but whether it is CEX/DEX or on/off-ramp, they are still in the early stages and will definitely see the emergence and development of new product forms. Many people may feel that exchanges dominate the crypto market and are too big to fail, but change is eternal in this industry. From Telegram bots to various on-chain trading terminals and launchpads, they are all places for new asset issuance and trading. This is a big gambling house of blockchain. If you have dreams, come here. In this cycle, I believe there will still be innovative asset issuance and trading products emerging, and there are already glimpses.
5. Investment is not always successful, narratives are not fixed, and market hotspots are rotating. Last year at this time, Ordinals’ conference was still relatively niche, and it has now become the most dazzling wealth creation myth in the field. Looking back at some of the previous investment/project stars, they have already disappeared in the “one day in the world, one year in the crypto market” timeline. It is important and necessary for both institutions and retail investors to remain sensitive and open to the market, to learn about new hotspots, and to overcome biases and arrogance. Another characteristic of this conference is that the hotspots and narratives are still relatively scattered, and there has not yet been a grand narrative like DeFi/NFT in previous years.
6. Influence has become an invisible asset, and KOLs and individual angels have become the new nobility. From the perspective of primary market practitioners, we have realized that many projects have established “KOL rounds” or sought KOL lists, giving a portion of their allocation to KOLs in order to gain promotion resources and channels in the market, achieving a win-win situation. Attention and information are extremely valuable in this industry, and influence will become a part of digital assets. For investors/project teams, it is also important to actively voice and brand themselves on social media. People with top-level influence will become leaders and dream makers in this market, such as a16z/Paradigm, as well as the efforts of Multicoin to promote the DePin field. This is a good example. On the other hand, when KOLs on Twitter call for buying and then sell off their holdings, it is also a way to monetize influence. If your narrative is pursued and accepted by the market, wealth will naturally follow.
7. Most existing projects will strive to conduct token generation events (TGEs) this year, and time is running out. The unanimous conclusion reached through discussions with investors and project teams is that if a team is not prepared to silently build through a full bull and bear cycle, then conducting a TGE within this year is the best choice for most teams. From April to the second half of the year, a large number of projects are expected to launch their tokens. There will be a mix of good and bad projects, which will drive the market to a climax. For retail investors, they should be more cautious in their investments, otherwise, there will be more opportunities to lose money. For project teams, it also means that whether they want support from the market or listing on exchanges, they need to face fierce competition.
8. There are thousands of ways to make money, seize the opportunity of institutional bull market. Lastly, let’s talk about something practical. There have been too many myths of getting rich and retiring recently, which also indicates that this is still the best and most hopeful industry. There are many ways to make money in this industry, whether it is through investments, projects, or riding meme trends. However, regardless of the method, it is important to have skin in the game, to dive deep, to be fully immersed, and to be open-minded. Otherwise, if you just command from the shore while others are intoxicated, you will only gain wisdom while others gain wealth. Many people may underestimate the influence of ETFs on the market. In addition to reaching new highs in Bitcoin, this round of institutional bull market will definitely bring more surprises.
